Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been damaging our daily life after declaration of pandemic. Therefore, we have started studying on the characteristics of Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model to know about the truth of infectious disease and our future.
After detailed studies on the characteristics of the SIR model for the various parameter dependencies with respect to such as the outing restriction (lockdown) ratio and vaccination rate, we have finally noticed that the second term (isolation term) in the differential equation of the number of the infected is quite similar to the “helium ash particle loss term” in deuterium-tritium (D-T) nuclear fusion. Based on this analogy, we have found that isolation of the infected is not actively controlled in the SIR model. Then we introduce the isolation control time parameter q and have studied its effect on this pandemic. Required isolation time to terminate the COVID-19 can be estimated by this proposed method.
To show this isolation control effect, we choose Tokyo for the model calculation because of high population density. We determine the reproduction number and the isolation ratio in the initial uncontrolled phase, and then the future number of the infected is estimated under various conditions. If the confirmed case can be isolated in 3∼8 days by widely performed testing, this pandemic could be suppressed without awaiting vaccination. If the mild outing restriction and vaccination are taken together, the isolation control time can be longer. We consider this isolation time control might be the only solution to overcome the pandemic when vaccine is not available.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
None
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
(1)Institute for Advanced Fusion & Physics Education, 2-14-8 Tokuou, Kitaku, Kumamoto, 861-5525, Japan (2)National Institute for Fusion Science, 322-6 Oroshi-cho, Toki, Gifu, 509-5292, Japan
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
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Data Availability
The following two datasets have been used.