Abstract
Background Many countries have successfully managed to stop the exponential spread of SARS-CoV-2. Still, the danger of a second wave of infections is omnipresent and it is clear that every containment policy must be carefully evaluated and possibly replaced by a different, less restrictive policy, before it can be lifted. Contact tracing and consequential breaking of infection-chains is a promising strategy to help contain the disease, although its precise impact on the epidemic is unknown.
Objective In this work we aim to quantify the impact of tracing on the containment of the disease.
Design We developed an agent-based simulation model that simulates the spread of the disease and allows for exploratory analysis of containment policies. We apply this model to quantify the impact of contact tracing in different characteristics in Austria and to derive general conclusions on contract tracing.
Results This modelling study displays the dynamics of the interplay between strictness of the tracing policies, isolated persons, and active COVID-19 infections. It shows that a strict tracing policy does not necessarily imply that the total number of quarantined persons is high as well, because the disease is better contained.
Limitations The results are limited by the validity of the modeling assumptions, model parameter estimates, and the quality of the parametrization data.
Conclusions The study shows that tracing is indeed an efficient measure to keep COVID-19 case numbers low but comes at the price of too many precautious quarantined people if the disease is not well contained. Therefore, contact tracing must be executed strictly and compliance within the population must be held up to prevent new disease outbreaks.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
No external funding was received
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
there is no ethics committee involved
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
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Paper in collection COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv
The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the Sergey Brin Family Foundation, California Institute of Technology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, University of Washington, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.