Abstract
The COVID-19 impact on global health and economic system has been profound and unseen since the Spanish flu of 1918-19. Iran is one of the countries that has been severely affected partly because of slow responses to the crisis, ill-preparedness of the health system, and fragile health infrastructure and shortage of protective equipment due to economic sanctions. Due to shortcomings in the reported data, this note tries to estimate a model-based number of infected cases and examines the effectiveness of different policy responses to contain this crisis. Our results show that in an optimistic estimation, the number of unidentified cases can be 3 to 6 times more than the reported numbers. Social distancing alone cannot be an effective policy at this stage of pandemic unless at least 80 percent of the population confine themselves for an extended period of time. An alternative policy is to increase testing extensively and isolate identified cases actively combined with effective social distancing. Otherwise, many lives will be lost and the health system will collapse, adding to the ongoing economic crisis as a result of sanctions for many years to come.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This research is not funded by any institution. Authors have used their spare time to do the analysis.
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Footnotes
* The views expressed in this working paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of their employer institutions.
Data Availability
All date used in the manuscript are public date, and the link to public data is provided in the footnotes of the manuscript. R codes used in the analysis will be provided by the corresponding author by request.