Abstract
Physical social interaction relevant to the spread of infectious diseases occurs, by its nature, at a local level. If infection and related mortality are associated with social background, it is therefore natural to study variation in them in relation to the social composition of local areas. The first part of the paper studies the geographical impact of Covid-19 infection on age-standardised sex-specific excess death rates during the peak months of the pandemic so far, March through May 2020. The second part examines monthly mortality dynamics in relation to predictions from a spatial SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of infection introduced by Bisin and Moro (2020). The analysis indicates that during the peak months of the Covid-19 pandemic, a larger non-white population and higher social deprivation in an area were associated with higher excess mortality, particularly among men. Regarding dynamics, higher population density accelerated the growth in mortality during the upsurge in infection and increased its rate of decline after the peak of the epidemic, thereby producing a more peaked mortality profile. There is also evidence of a slower post-peak decline in mortality in more socially deprived areas but a more rapid decline in areas with a larger non-white population.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford
Author Declarations
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All data are publicly available from the UK Office of National Statistics. The research was carried out under the auspices of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford
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Data Availability
All data are publicly available from the UK Office of National Statistics, and links are provided within the paper and in next box below.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019