Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is transmitted more effectively in densely populated areas and omitting this phenomenon from epidemiological models may substantially affect projections of spread and control. Adjusting for deprivation, proportion of ethnic minority population and proportion of key workers among the working population, mortality data from England show good evidence for an increasing trend with population density until a saturating level. Projections from a mathematical model that accounts for this observation deviate markedly from the current status quo for SARS-CoV-2 models which either assume linearity between density and transmission (30% of models) or no relationship at all (70%). Respectively, these standard model structures over- and under-estimate the delay in infection resurgence following the release of lockdown. Models have had a prominent role in SARS-CoV-2 intervention strategy; identifying saturation points for given populations and including transmission terms that account for this feature will improve model utility.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
OJB was funded by a Sir Henry Wellcome Fellowship funded by the Wellcome Trust (206471/Z/17/Z). Neither the authors nor their institutions at any time received payment or services from a third party for any aspect of the submitted work.
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
N/A
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
All data can be retrieved from our github