Abstract
Lockdown and social distancing measures have been implemented for many countries to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming of health services. However, success on this strategy depends not only on the timing of its implementation, but also on the relaxation measures adopted within each community. At the request of Sonoran Health Ministry, we developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impacts of the lockdown implemented in Hermosillo, Mexico. We compared this intervention with some hypothetical ones, varying the starting date and also the population proportion that is released, breaking the confinement. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo study was performed by considering three scenarios to define our baseline dynamics. Results showed that a hypothetical delay of two weeks, on the lockdown measures, would result in an early ACME around May 9 for hospitalization prevalence and an increase on cumulative deaths, 42 times higher by May 31, when compared to baseline. On the other hand, in respect of relaxation dynamics, the ACME levels depend on the proportion of people who gets back to daily activities or the individual behavior regarding prevention measures. It is important to stress that, according to information provided by health authorities, the ACME occurring time was closed to the one given by our model. Hence, we considered that our model resulted useful for the decision-making assessment, and that an extension of it can be used for the study of a potential second wave.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
Conacyt (Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologa) provides the financial support, under the project 313269: UNISON COVID-19: Comportamiento del brote epidemico COVID-19 en Sonora, bajo diferentes escenarios de control.
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I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
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NOT NECESSARILY IN THIS CASE
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Paper in collection COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv
The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the Sergey Brin Family Foundation, California Institute of Technology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, University of Washington, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.