Abstract
We have proposed a new mathematical method, SEIHCRD-Model that is an extension of the SEIR-Model adding hospitalized and critical two-compartments. SEIHCRD model has seven compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), hospitalized (H), critical (C), recovered (R), and deceased or death (D), collectively termed SEIHCRD. We have studied COVID-19 cases of six countries, where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil, India, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. SEIHCRD model is estimating COVID-19 spread and forecasting under uncertainties, constrained by various observed data in the present manuscript. We have first collected the data for a specific period, then fit the model for death cases, got the values of some parameters from it, and then estimate the basic reproduction number over time, which is nearly equal to real data, infection rate, and recovery rate of COVID-19. We also compute the case fatality rate over time of COVID-19 most affected countries. SEIHCRD model computes two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily and the second one is total CFR. We analyze the spread and endpoint of COVID-19 based on these estimates. SEIHCRD model is time-dependent hence we estimate the date and magnitude of peaks of corresponding to the number of exposed cases, infected cases, hospitalized cases, critical cases, and the number of deceased cases of COVID-19 over time. SEIHCRD model has incorporated the social distancing parameter, different age groups analysis, number of ICU beds, number of hospital beds, and estimation of how much hospital beds and ICU beds are required in near future.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Clinical Trial
We dont have this id. Our work in on data so dont need clinical trial.
Funding Statement
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Footnotes
The mathematical model is very helpful to predict the disease outbreak of COVID-19 and the SIR model and SEIR model have been widely used for prediction. Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model in which three-compartments has added that is death, hospitalized, and critical. People with a serious infection, suffer from severe pneumonia need hospitalization. These individuals may either recover or progress to the critical compartment. People with critical infection experience multi-organ failure and multiple disorders require treatment in an ICU. These people either recover from the disease or die from it. The SEIHCRD model estimates the date and magnitude of peaks of corresponding to exposed people, the number of infected people, the number of people hospitalized, the number of people admitted in ICUs, and the number of death of COVID-19. The SEIHCRD model is time-dependent hence; we have calculated the number of cases infected cases, hospitalized cases, and critical cases with time. We have data of hospital beds and ICU beds of most infected countries by COVID-19 after that we have calculated the hospitalized cases and critical cases using the proposed model then after calculation we can say how much beds are required. SEIHCRD-Model also computes the basic reproduction number over time, which is nearly the same as real data, but sometimes it varies, we also compute the case fatality rate over time of COVID-19 most affected countries. The model computes two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily and the second one is total CFR. SEIHCRD model has shown, Spain and Italy have seen their worst times. The result shows that COVID-19 cases of Spain have ended completely in June last or July starting. Italy will be recovered completely by this disaster in August. India and Brazil have not yet seen the peak of the disaster. The result shows COVID-19 cases are at a peak in June in India and it is on a peak in June and July in Brazil. India needs some hospital beds in June. Brazil is going to have a shortage of hospital beds and ICU beds in June and July. The United State of America has suffered this tragedy the most. The USA has the highest number of total cases and deceased cases. The USA takes more days to recover and it will be recovered in October.
Data Availability
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