Abstract
The increasingly evident role of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission means testing is central to COVID-19 control, but test sensitivity estimates are low (around 65%). We extend an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Poor test sensitivity potentially reduces the efficacy of contact tracing, due to false-negative results impacting quarantine. We show that, counter-intuitively, faster testing could also reduce operational test sensitivity, exacerbating this effect. If sensitivity-based risks are mitigated, we find that contact tracing can facilitate control, but small changes in the population reproduction number (1·3 to 1·5) could impact contact tracing feasibility.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
ELD, TCDL, AB, DA, LP, TMP, GM & TDH gratefully acknowledge funding of the NTD Modelling Consortium by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (grant number OPP1184344). The following funding sources are acknowledged as providing funding for the named authors. This research was partly funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (NTD Modelling Consortium OPP1184344: GM). This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose (101003688: PK). Royal Society (RP/EA/180004: PK). Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z: JH, SA). Views, opinions, assumptions or any other information set out in this article should not be attributed to BMGF or any person connected with them. TC is funded by a Sir Henry Wellcome Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (reference 215919/Z/19/Z). TMP's PhD is supported by the Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council, Medical Research Council and University of Warwick (grant number EP/L015374/1). TMP thanks Big Data Institute for hosting him during this work. All funders had no role in the study design, collection, analysis, interpretation of data, writing of the report, or decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
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Paper in collection COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv
The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the Sergey Brin Family Foundation, California Institute of Technology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, University of Washington, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
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