Summary
Background No versatile web app exists that allows epidemiologists and managers around the world to fully analyze the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation. The NMB-DASA web app presented here fills this gap.
Methods Our web app uses a model that explicitly identifies a contact class of individuals, symptomatic and asymptomatic classes and a parallel set of response class, subject to lower contact pathogen contact rates. The user inputs a CSV file containing incidence and mortality time series. A default set of parameters is available that can be overwritten through input or online entry, and a subset of these can be fitted to the model using an MLE algorithm. The end of model-fitting and forecasting intervals are specifiable and changes to parameters allows counterfactual and forecasted scenarios to be explored.
Findings We illustrate the app in the context of the current COVID-19 outbreak in Israel, which can be divided into four distinct phases: an initial outbreak; a social distancing, a social relaxation, and a second wave mitigation phase. Our projections beyond the relaxation phase indicate that an 85% drop in social relaxation rates are needed just to stabilize the current incidence rate and that at least a 95% drop is needed to quell the outbreak
Interpretation Our analysis uses only incidence and mortality rates. In the hands of policy makers and health officers, we believe our web app provides an invaluable tool for evaluating the impacts of different outbreak mitigation policies and measures.
Funding This research was funded by NSF Grant 2032264.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This research was funded by NSF Grant 2032264.
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
This section is not applicable since this paper does not report newly collected data, but only used data available on the web (specifically, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/)
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
This paper scraps data from the web. All sources of data are fully referenced