Abstract
COVID-19–a viral infectious disease–has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an infected person is broadly classified into two categories namely, asymptomatic and symptomatic. Asymptomatic individuals display mild or no symptoms but continue to transmit the infection to other-wise healthy individuals. This particular aspect of asymptomatic infection poses a major obstacle in managing and controlling the transmission of the infectious disease. In this paper, we attempt to mathematically model the spread of COVID-19 in India under various intervention strategies. We consider SEIR type epidemiological models, incorporated with India specific social contact matrix representing contact structures among different age groups of the population. Impact of various factors such as presence of asymptotic individuals, lockdown strategies, social distancing practices, quarantine, and hospitalization on the disease transmission is extensively studied. Numerical simulation of our model is matched with the real COVID-19 data of India till May 15, 2020 for the purpose of estimating the model parameters. Our model with zone-wise lockdown is seen to give a decent prediction for July 20, 2020.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Clinical Trial
Our work is based on mathematical model and real COVID-19 data
Funding Statement
NM˜:˜ Work of this author was partially funded by grant MTR/2019/001366 of the Science and Engineering Research Board of India SR˜:˜ Work of this author was partially funded by grant MSC/2020/000289 of the Science and Engineering Research Board of India.
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
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Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
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Data Availability
https://www.covid19india.org/ and https://github.com/MadhabBarman/Epidemic-Control-Model