Abstract
The study explores the influence of socio-economic variables on case and death rates of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany until mid-June 2020. It covers Germany’s 401 counties by multivariate spatial models that can take into account regional interrelationships and possible spillover effects. The case and death rates are, for example, significantly positively associated with early cases from the beginning of the epidemic, the average age, the population density and the number of people employed in elderly care. By contrast, they are significantly negatively associated with the density of schoolchildren and infant care as well as the density of doctors. In addition, for certain variables significant spillover effects on the case numbers of neighbouring regions could be identified, which have a different sign than the overall effects and thus give cause for further analyses of the mechanisms of action of COVID-19 infections. The results complement the knowledge about COVID-19 infection beyond the clinical risk factors discussed so far by a socio-economic perspective. The findings can contribute to the targeted derivation of political measures and their review, as is currently being discussed in particular for the tourism and education sectors.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
No person-specific data was used in this study.
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
All data used are publicly available.