Abstract
The number of new daily infections is one of the main parameters to understand the dynamics of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, such information has been underestimated. Here, we propose a retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from daily deaths, because those are usually more accurately documented. The methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable infections were between 34 and 42 times more than the official ones on 14 March, when national government decreed the national lockdown. The latter had a strong effect on the growth rate of virus transmission, which began to decrease immediately. Finally, the first infection in Spain may have occurred on 11 January 2020, around 40 days before it was officially reported. In summary, we state that our methodology is adequate to reinterpret official daily infections, being more accurate in magnitude and dates.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
Funding This work was supported by the University of Alicante [COVID-19 2020-41.30.6P.0016 to CB] and the Ajuntament de Denia through the Montgo-Denia Research Station Agreement [2020-41.30.6O.00.01 to CB]. Acknowledgements We acknowledge Parques Nacionales (Ministerio para la Transicion Ecologica y Reto Demografico, Spain) and Generalitat Valenciana (Regional Government of Valencia, Spain) for the support of the Montgo-Denia Research Station. Editing was provided by Sea Pen Scientific Writing.
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University of Alicante
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Paper in collection COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv
The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the Sergey Brin Family Foundation, California Institute of Technology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, University of Washington, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
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