Abstract
We present an elementary model of COVID-19 propagation that makes explicit the connection between testing strategies and rates of transmission and the linear growth in new cases observed in many parts of the world. An essential feature of the model is that it captures the population-level response to the infection statistics information provided by governments and other organisations. The conclusions from this model have important implications regarding benefits of wide-spread testing for the presence of the virus, something that deserves greater attention.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This work is not funded.
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
Not relevant in this work
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
All data used is publicly available.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Georgia_(U.S._state)
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=~SWEphy