Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has kept the world in suspense for the past months. In most federal countries such as Germany, locally varying conditions demand for state- or county-level decisions. However, this requires a deep understanding of the meso-scale outbreak dynamics between micro-scale agent models and macro-scale global models. Here, we introduce a reparameterized SIQRD network model that accounts for local political decisions to predict the spatio-temporal evolution of the pandemic in Germany at county and city resolution. Our optimized model reproduces state-wise cumulative infections and deaths as reported by the Robert-Koch Institute, and predicts development for individual counties at convincing accuracy. We demonstrate the dominating effect of local infection seeds, and identify effective measures to attenuate the rapid spread. Our model has great potential to support decision makers on a state and community politics level to individually strategize their best way forward.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
no funding.
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
N.A.
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
Data on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany is publicly available from the respective resources as cited in the paper. We curated county-wise infection data over time from the RKI dashboard [7]. Data on performed tests is publicly available from the Antibiotika Resistenz Surveillance (ARS) instute of the RKI [31]. Simulation scripts are available from the corresponding author at reasonable request. 7. Robert Koch Institute. COVID-19-Dashboard, last accessed May 28, 2020. 31. Robert Koch Institute. Laborbasierte Surveillance von SARS-CoV-2 - weekly report, last accessed June 4, 2020.
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