ABSTRACT
A simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic dynamics under quarantine conditions and method to estimate quarantine effectiveness are developed. The model is based on the growth rate of new infections when total number of infections is significantly smaller than population size of infected country or region. The model is developed on the basis of collected epidemiological data of Covid19 pandemic, which shows that the growth rate of new infections has tendency to decrease linearly when the quarantine is imposed in a country (or a region) until it reaches a constant value, which corresponds to the effectiveness of quarantine measures taken in the country. The growth rate of new infections can be used as criteria to estimate quarantine effectiveness.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This research is funded by the Research Council of Lithuania under the project P-MIP-17-108 "ComDetect" (Agreement No. S-MIP-17-69), 2017-2020.
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Paper in collection COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv
The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the Sergey Brin Family Foundation, California Institute of Technology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, University of Washington, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.