Indonesia's May exports, imports plunge as coronavirus pandemic hits trade

May exports were US$10.53 billion, down 28.95 per cent on-year, partly due to falling shipments of coal and coffee as well as oil and gas. PHOTO: REUTERS

JAKARTA (REUTERS) - Indonesia's exports and imports plunged the most since 2009 in May as the coronavirus pandemic hammered global trade, data showed on Monday (June 15), suggesting deeper economic pain for South-east Asia's largest economy and prompting calls for rate cuts.

The data, which aligned with other indicators showing weak second quarter economic activity, may put the central bank in a tight spot as it meets this week to review monetary policy.

May exports were US$10.53 billion (S$14.71 billion), down 28.95 per cent on-year, partly due to falling shipments of coal and coffee as well as oil and gas, the bureau said. A Reuters poll had forecast a 17.98 per cent fall.

Imports plummeted 42.20 per cent on-year in May to US$8.44 billion, compared with the poll's expectation for a 24.55 per cent drop. Overseas purchases of everything from consumer goods to raw materials and capital goods fell.

The country had a US$2.09 billion trade surplus in May, bigger than the poll's forecast of a US$420 million surplus.

Mr David Sumual, chief economist at Bank Central Asia, said gross domestic product might have contracted faster than initially expected in April-June, or by up to 5 per cent year-on-year.

"I think (Bank Indonesia) will cut by 25 basis points. They may cut some more in July if this month's trade and inflation reports show a similar story like last month's," Mr Sumual said.

Inflation in May was 2.19 per cent, a 20-year low.

However, Mr Satria Sambijantoro, an economist with brokerage Bahana Sekuritas, pointed to recent heightened volatility in the financial markets complicating BI's decision making.

Indonesian markets rallied earlier this month on expectations of an economic recovery as countries gradually emerged from lockdown. But they were under pressure last week due to fears of a new wave of coronavirus infections and as Indonesia reported its highest daily increase in Covid-19 cases.

"Economic growth is a concern, yes, but I don't think the stability-oriented BI might cut rates too aggressively when volatility indicators ... are on their way up," Mr Satria said.

The statistics bureau said seasonality played a factor in both exports' and imports' plunge, with trade activity usually weaker after the Eid al-Fitr holidays.

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