Abstract
This study examines the association between community transmission of COVID-19 cases and climatic predictors, considering travel information and annual parasite index across the three climatic zones, i.e., tropical, subtropical, and temperate. A Boosted Regression Tree model has been employed to understand the association between the COVID-19 cases. The results show that average temperature and average relative humidity are the major contributors in explaining the differentials of COVID-19 transmission in temperate and subtropical regions whereas the mean diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality are the most significant determinants in tropical regions. The average temperature is the most influential factor affecting the number of COVID-19 cases in France, Turkey, the US, the UK, and Germany, and the cases decrease sharply above 10°C. Among the tropical countries, India found to be most affected by mean diurnal temperature, and Brazil fazed by temperature seasonality. Most of the temperate countries like France, USA, Turkey, UK, and Germany with an average temperature between 5–12°C had high number of COVID-19 cases. The findings are expected to add to the ongoing debates on the influence of climatic factors influencing the number of COVID-19 cases and could help researchers and policymakers to make appropriate decisions for preventing the spread.
Highlights
Analyzed influence of climatic & bioclimatic factors on the spread of COVID-19
First to analyze COVID-19 cases in 228 cities globally across three climatic zones
Temperature & humidity influenced COVID-19 cases in temperate & sub-tropics
Mean diurnal temperature & temperature seasonality had effects in tropics
Low temperature elicits COVID-19 cases in France, Turkey, the US, the UK, & Germany
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
no specific funding for this work
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
As we prepared it based on secondary data, therefore ethical approval is not required
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Footnotes
malaypramanik{at}ait.asia
totongeo{at}gmail.com
jranajnu{at}gmail.com
praffulitbisht{at}gmail.com
Raghunath.geo17{at}gmail.com
sylviaszabo{at}ait.asia
indrajit-pal{at}ait.asia
bhagirath9{at}gmail.com
Q.Liang{at}lboro.ac.uk
s.padmadas{at}soton.ac.uk
pd.udmale2{at}gmail.com
Data Availability
The data are available on request