Abstract
Objectives The outbreak of the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has prompted investigations on various aspects. This research aims to study the possible correlation between the numbers of swab tests and confirmed cases of infection, with special attention to the sickness level.
Study Design The study is carried out with reference to the Italian case, but the result is of more general importance, in particular for countries with limited availability of ICUs (intensive care units).
Methods The statistical analysis shows correlation between the number of swab tests and those of daily positive cases, mild cases admitted to hospital, intensive care cases, recovery, and death rate, and provides a basis to carry on an AI study. The results were validated using a multivariate linear regression (MLR) approach.
Results Our main result is the identification of a significant statistical effect of reduction of the pressure on the Health system as result of the increase of the tests. The relevance of this result is not confined to the COVID-19 outbreak, because the high demand of hospitalizations and ICU treatments due to this pandemic has an indirect effect on the possibility of guaranteeing an adequate treatment for other high-fatality disease, such as e.g. cardiological, and oncological.
Conclusions Our results show that swab testing may play a major role to decrease the stress on the Health system of a country. Therefore, this case study is relevant in particular for the planning of the control of the pandemic in countries with a limited capacity of admission to ICU’s units.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This research received no external funding.
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
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All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
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Data Availability
All used data is available in this site
https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/2020/coronavirus-i-contagi-in-italia/