Abstract
Pandemics have a profound impact on our world, causing loss of life, affecting our culture and historically shaping our genetics. The response to a pandemic requires both resilience and imagination. It has been clearly documented that obtaining an accurate estimate and trends of the actual infection rate and mortality risk are very important for policy makers and medical professionals. One cannot estimate mortality rates without an accurate assessment of the number of infected individuals in the population. This need is also aligned with identifying the infected individuals so they can be properly treated, monitored and tracked. However, accurate estimation of the infection rate, locally, geographically and nationally is important independently. These infection rate estimates can guide policy makers at both state, national or world level to achieve a better management of risk to society. The decisions facing policy makers are very different during early stages of an emerging epidemic where the infection rate is low, middle stages where the rate is rapidly climbing, and later stages where the epidemic curve has flattened to a low and relatively sustainable rate. In this paper we provide relatively efficient pooling methods to both estimate infection rates and identify infected individuals for populations with low infection rates. These estimates may provide significant cost reductions for testing in rural communities, third world countries and other situations where the cost of testing is expensive or testing is not widely available. As we prepare for the second wave of the pandemic this line of work may provide new solutions for both the biomedical community and policy makers at all levels.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
No external funding has been received for this work
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
No Human subjects have been involved in this study
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
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Yes
Footnotes
↵# The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare
Data Availability
Self Contained