Abstract
The United States has the highest numbers of confirmed cases and death of COVID–19, where confirmed cases took up nearly half in the hot spot states of New York, New Jersey and California1,2. The workforce in these states was required to work from home except for essential services to minimize the risk of the spread of COVID–19. Premature reopening of economy will lead to broader spread of COVID–19, while the opposite situation would cause greater loss of economy. We proposed an epidemic compartmental model in considering the pre-symptomatic transmission and asymptomatic transmission3 of COVID–19, to estimate the numbers of unidentified infected cases and simulate the possible outcomes of resumption of economy at different forthcoming Mondays. The states of New York and New Jersey were not recommended to reopen the economy before May 18 since it may increase 22.44% and 60.18% for the numbers of cumulative confirmed cases if the second wave of the infection would happen, respectively. While that may be feasible for California to reopen business on May 11 if appropriate control measures for prevention of the second wave of the infection are implemented, because of the less benefit for delaying reopening the economy and the relatively smaller magnitude of Outbreak of COVID–19.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This study was partly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1315400), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11771462; Grant No. 71991474), the Key Research and Development Program of Guangdong, China (Grant No. 2019B020228001) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (19lgpy236).
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All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Paper in collection COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv
The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the Sergey Brin Family Foundation, California Institute of Technology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, University of Washington, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
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