Abstract
We have recently introduced two novel mathematical models for characterizing the dynamics of the cumulative number of individuals in a given country reported to be infected with COVID-19. Here we show that these models can also be used for determining the time-evolution of the associated number of deaths. In particular, using data up to around the time that the rate of deaths reaches a maximum, these models provide estimates for the time that a plateau will be reached signifying that the epidemic is approaching its end, as well as for the cumulative number of deaths at that time. The plateau is defined to occur when the rate of deaths is 5% of the maximum rate. Results are presented for South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany, and USA. The number of COVID-19 deaths in other counties can be analyzed similarly.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
A.S.F. acknowledges support from EPSRC, UK, in the form of a Senior Fellowship. N.D. acknowledges support from Royal Society in the form of a fellowship.
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Paper in collection COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv
The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the Sergey Brin Family Foundation, California Institute of Technology, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Imperial College London, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, The University of Edinburgh, University of Washington, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
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