Abstract
We propose an algebraic-type formula that describes with high accuracy the spread of Covid-19 pandemic under aggressive management for the periods of the intensive growth of the total number of infections. The formula can be used as a powerful forecasting tool. The parameters of the theory are the transmission rate, reflecting the viral fitness and “normal” frequency of contacts in the infected areas, and the intensity of prevention measures. The duration of the period of intensive growth is essentially inversely proportional to the square root of the intensity of hard measures for the most aggressive mode. A more precise formula is based on the Bessel functions. The data for the USA, UK, Sweden, Israel are provided, including the “forecast cones”.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Clinical Protocols
https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06021
Funding Statement
Funding: partially supported by NSF grant DMS-1901796 and the Simons Foundation.
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
Extended data and a complete theory are in arxiv 2004.06021v3 (q-bio)