Abstract
Objectives Since December 2019 a pandemic of new novel coronavirus has started from Wuhan, China, in Egypt, the first case reported on February 14, 2020. In this study we aimed to predict the time of possible peak and simulate the changes could be happen by the social behavior of Egyptians during Ramadan (the holy month).
Methods SIR and SEIR compartmental models were used to predict the peak time. We simulated different expected scenarios based to examine their effects on the peak timing.
Results We found that the peak most likely to be in middle of June 2020. Simulating different transmission rate probability and R0 the earliest peak could to be in the May 20 and latest one could be in 18 July. The peak shifted much earlier to 11th April 2020 without lockdown and other mitigation strategies.
Conclusion Social behaviors of citizens during the holy month will dramatically affect the peak timing. Mitigations strategies and other lockdown measure helped to delay the expected peak.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
no funding
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
data will be available on request