Abstract
Introduction and Aims Retarding the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection by preventive strategies is the first line of management. Several countries have declared a stringent lock-down in order to enforce social distancing and prevent the spread of infection. This analysis was conducted in an attempt to understand the impact of lock-down on infection and death rates over a period of time.
Material and Methods A validated database was used to generate data related to countries with declared lock-down. Simple regression analysis was conducted to assess the rate of change in infection and death rates. Subsequently, a k-means and hierarchical cluster analysis was done to identify the countries that performed similarly. Sweden and South Korea were included as counties without lock-down in a second-phase cluster analysis.
Results There was a significant 61% and 43% reduction in infection rates 1-week post lock-down in the overall and India cohorts, respectively, supporting its effectiveness. Countries with higher baseline infections and deaths fared poorly compared to those who declared lock-down early on. Sweden and South Korea fared equally well, as most lock-down countries stemmed the growth of infection and death.
Conclusion Lock-down has proven to be an effective strategy is slowing down the SARS-CoV-2 disease progression exponentially. However, lessons need to be learned from Sweden and South Korea on arresting the disease progression without imposing such stringent measures.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
No external funding was received.
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
All data are freely available online.