Abstract
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) affecting across the globe. The government of different countries has adopted various policies to contain this epidemic and the most common were social distancing and lockdown. We use a simple log-linear model with intercept and trend break to evaluate whether the measures are effective preventing/slowing down the spread of the disease in Turkey. We estimate the model parameters from the Johns Hopkins University (2020) epidemic data between 15th March and 16th April 2020. Our analysis revealed that the measures can slow down the outbreak. We can reduce the epidemic size and prolong the time to arrive at the epidemic peak by seriously following the measures suggested by the authorities.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
No external funding
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
The data is available from Coronavirus COVID-19 global cases by the centre for systems science and engineering (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)