Abstract
The aim of this study is to predict the daily infected cases with Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Algeria. We apply the SIR model on data from 25 February 2020 to 17April 2020 for the prediction. We estimate the parameters of our model by minimizing the negative log likelihood function using the Nelder- Mead method. We found that the epidemic peak reach July month and the COVID-19 disease is expected to disappear in the month of October. We suggest that Algerian authorities need to implement a strict containment strategy over a long period to successfully reduce the epidemic size, as soon as possible.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
The authors received no specific funding for this work
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
The data are obtained from: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series