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Leading model projects some states could reopen by May 4. Not so fast, say other modelers.

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April 17, 2020 at 8:30 p.m. EDT
In Hawaii and a handful of other states, some social distancing measures may be able to be relaxed in early May, so long as “robust containment strategies” are implemented to prevent a second wave of infections, according to a disease forecasting model released Friday. (Caleb Jones/AP)

A leading coronavirus forecasting model — used by the White House — predicted Friday that some states may be able to ease social distancing restrictions and reopen as early as May 4.

But on the same day those projections were issued by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington — giving recommended dates for reopening all 50 states — a consortium of experts in Texas released a competing model that points out what they call flaws in the IHME model and analysis showing instances in which IHME’s projections have fallen short of reality.