It is the bleakest of ironies: the biggest news story in a lifetime is killing off the very industry that exists to report it. Coronavirus is destroying newsprint newspapers across Britain, delivering the coup de grace to businesses that were already in the process of dying.
Local and regional newspaper publishers have found it economically unsustainable to go on producing papers. In response, they have suspended the publication of scores of titles and placed hundreds of journalists on paid leave. “Furloughs” have become part of the new pandemic lexicon.
At national level, print runs have been drastically reduced because of distribution problems, most obviously resulting from the widespread closure of retail stores. Edition sizes have also been cut back due to the drop-off in advertisers. Similarly, many magazines are also forsaking print in favour of digital-only publication.
Although formal announcements by publishers stress that their dramatic Covid-19 measures will be temporary, there is reason to believe some may be permanent. Newsprint, the transmission of news by ink on paper, might not recover from the contagion in what could eventually be seen as a transformational moment for the 380-year British newspaper history.
There will not be a post-pandemic “old media” recovery because it seems inconceivable that publishers, already struggling to fund journalism, will return to the previous status quo. That’s because the status quo was, itself, one of perpetual fragility in which publishers were engaged in the delicate task of managing newsprint decline while, in parallel, seeking to create a digital journalism business model.
As is well known, their central problem has been the failure to find any viable alternative to advertising as newspapers’ major source of revenue. Throughout the past 20 years, papers have defied forecasters who predicted that advertising income was on the verge of disappearing. Instead, it has lasted well enough to sustain newspapers, even though its decrease has necessitated severe cuts to editorial budgets and a consequent diminution in the quality and quantity of content.
Advertising’s surprising durability has been important because it enabled publishers to play circus performers – riding two horses at the same time to provide funds for both newsprint and digital platforms. But sensible newspaper owners, managers and editors have long realised that there would come a time when advertising would dry up, newsprint’s ever-decreasing audience would vanish, and they would need to find a way to fund digital journalism without ad support.
That there is a hunger for online news is undeniable. For the past month, every major publisher has been reporting record numbers of website visits. Page views each day have been off the chart. Dwell time, one of the key metrics to show the depth of reader engagement with individual articles, has increased, too. One result, according to some national publishers that impose charges for online access, has been a rise in subscriptions.
To put this in an even more positive perspective for newspapers, the expansion of interest in their content has occurred despite record viewing figures for TV and radio news and current affairs broadcasts. This interest is obviously due to coronavirus being, as everyone emphasises on a daily basis, an unprecedented event.
What is not emphasised, however, is the certainty that its aftermath will also be unprecedented. Economic activity will surely be slower to revive than optimists, such as government ministers, would like us to believe. Indeed, it wasn’t in a healthy state prior to the shock of Covid-19.
By the time the lockdown ends – and that light appears to be a long way down the tunnel – many companies may not be in a state to recover. It is true that some could seek to revive their businesses through advertising; but financial constraints on potential consumers, because of depleted income during the emergency, will make the outcome of such initiatives uncertain.
Post-lockdown, publishers will be reassessing the state of their businesses. Aside from the difficulties they face in winning back advertisers, they will need to make rational decisions about their bottom lines. Did the closure of this or that title really matter? How much money did we save by publishing fewer newsprint issues? Do we need expensive offices when our papers have been so effectively produced by journalists operating remotely?
In mid-March, that wise historian, Peter Hennessy, conveyed the epoch-making significance of the pandemic during a BBC Radio 4 interview. Future historians, he said, will divide our age into BC and AC: “Before corona and after corona.”
I am convinced media analysts will make the same division. AC will likely mark the final stage in newsprint’s long decline.