ABSTRACT
COVID-19 is now widely spreading around the world as a global pandemic. In this report, we estimate the global tendency of COVID-19 and analyze the associated global epidemic risk, given that the status quo is continued without further measures being taken.
The results show that the global R0, excluding China, is estimated to be 2.49 (95% CI: 2.15 – 2.92). The United States, Germany, Italy and Spain have peak values over 100,000. According to dynamical model and cluster analysis, we category the globe into four type regional epicenters of the outbreak: Southeast Asia extending southward to Oceania, the Middle East, Western Europe and North America. Among them, Western Europe will become the major center of the outbreak. The peak values in Germany, Italy and Spain are estimated to be 105,903, 127,283 and 152,539, respectively. The United States is the country with the most serious outbreak trend. Based on the current control measures by Mar. 27, 2020, the peak value in the United States will reach 400,892. Above all, if the current control measures are maintained, the cumulative number of patients worldwide will be 1,442,523 (95% CI: 1,052,577 – 8,981,440). We also estimated the diagnosis rate, recovery rate and infection degree of each country or region, and use clustering algorithm to retrieve countries or regions with similar epidemic characteristics. Different suggestions are proposed for countries or regions in different clusters.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
No funding support
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
All the data are available from the official networks.
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Abbreviations
- COVID-19
- Coronavirus Disease 2019;
- SARS-CoV-2
- Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2;
- CI
- Confidence Interval;
- SEIR
- Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered.