Abstract
Predicting the course of an epidemic is difficult, predicting the course of a pandemic from an emerging virus even more so. The validity of most predictive models relies on numerous parameters, involving biological and social characteristics often unknown or highly uncertain. COVID-19 pandemic brings additional factors such as population density and movements, behaviours, quality of the health system. Data from the COVID-19 epidemics in China, Japan and South Korea were used to build up data-driven deterministic models. Epidemics occurring in selected European countries rapidly evolved to overtake most Chinese provinces, to overtake South Korean model for France and even Hubei in the case of Italy and Spain. This approach was applied to other European countries and provides relevant information to inform disease control decision-making.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This work was supported by the French programs Les Enveloppes Fluides et l’Environnement (CNRS-INSU), Défi Infinity (CNRS) and Programme National de Télédétection Spatiale (CNRS-INSU).
Author Declarations
All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.
Yes
All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
The data used in the present study come from the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China and the Johns Hudson University and can be downloaded directly and freely from their respective websites. The GPoM-epidemiologic bulletins were also used. The GPoM tools for global modelling developed in CESBIO by the authors and used to perform the analysis are made available freely and directly downloadable on the Comprehensive R Archrive Network.
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/pzhgli/new_list.shtml
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data
https://labo.obs-mip.fr/multitemp/bulletin-gpom-epidemiologic/