Iran’s Economic Resilience Is Mostly a Mirage
The government likes to boast about self-reliance in the face of sanctions, but in reality the regime in Tehran is struggling with rampant inflation, joblessness and other miseries.
Less than meets the eye.
Photographer: Ali Mohammadi/BloombergAfter nearly a decade of chronic anemia, the Iranian economy appears to be in recovery. That, at least, is the headline from the latest World Bank report on the Islamic Republic. “After exiting a two-year recession in 2020/21, Iran’s economy returned to some growth in 2021/22,” say the report’s authors, pointing to a 6.2% rebound in last year’s spring quarter. The government’s own statistical body claims GDP grew 5.9% in the first half. (The Iranian fiscal year runs from March 22 to March 21.)
The regime in Tehran will undoubtedly seize on this as proof its efforts to create a “resistance economy” are bearing fruit. Since being sworn in last summer, President Ebrahim Raisi has faithfully parroted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s dictum about insulating Iran from the effects of U.S. sanctions by encouraging domestic production and non-oil trade with neighboring countries.