Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Republican nomination?

Former President Donald Trump is not the only person battling for the Republican nomination in 2024: Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is also vying to carry the banner of the GOP into the general election.  

The two are the last candidates standing on the Republican side, and their fight comes as Trump is up against several historic indictments, one of which pertains to his alleged attempts to interfere with the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, which resulted in the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Another involves his alleged mishandling of classified documents at his private Florida resort. He was also indicted in Georgia on charges related to his actions during the 2020 election. Beyond these criminal issues, Trump owes a total of about $600 million after massive financial penalties were levied against him in civil cases related to fraudulent business practices and defamation. With his competition, legal and financial woes in mind, how likely is Trump to win the 2024 nomination?

Is Trump the 2024 Republican front-runner?

The answer, barring a massive shift in the political landscape, seems to unequivocally be 'yes.' Trump is dominating in the polls against Haley, just as he did with all of the GOP competition which has since left the field. A Feb. 20 YouGov/Economist poll of 612 voters found Trump leading Haley nationally 78% to 12%. This is in line with a Feb. 19 Morning Consult poll which found Trump leading Haley by 81% to 18%. This trend is not unique: In the six most recent head-to-head matchups between the pair on FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate, Trump leads Haley by anywhere from 61 points to 66 points.

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There's nothing in the Constitution that prohibits an indicted person, or even a convicted felon, from running for president. For the most part, Trump maintained a vice grip on the Republican nomination even as his criminal indictments racked up throughout 2023. According to a RealClearPolitics national poll aggregation cited by Intelligencer last year, Trump's support was at 53.9% on Aug. 1, the day he was indicted for the third time. However, new polling suggests there is a major wrinkle that could be thrown into the contest if Trump is found guilty, as more and more Republicans appear to be souring to the idea of the former president being on the ticket if he is convicted of a crime. A New York Times/Siena poll taken at the end of 2023 found 28% of Republicans felt Trump "should NOT be the Republican nominee if he is convicted of a crime, even if he has won the most votes in the primary." However, polling following the Iowa caucuses generally showed most Trump voters would not see their support wane as a result of a conviction. 

Who else is running?

Haley, a former governor of South Carolina who previously said she wouldn't run if Trump did, was one of the first to enter the race and was described by the New Statesman as “an extremist in moderate clothing.” While Haley started off more muted in her fight against the former president, she has since taken to attacking Trump on a wide variety of issues, repeatedly calling him unfit for office. Haley in general has been "[escalating] her attacks on the former president, saying she has 'no fear of Trump's retribution,' isn't jockeying to be his vice president and that her 'political future is of zero concern,'" CBS News said. She also criticized Trump for mocking her husband, who is currently on military deployment in Africa. 

While some in the GOP have urged Haley to suspend her campaign, the former governor has instead "unleashed a torrent of criticism against the former president, calling him a 'bully' who's 'getting meaner and more offensive by the day,'" Politico said. This includes repeating her "oft-used refrains that Trump has 'gotten more unstable and unhinged'" while also "[painting] Trump as weak on national security, bashing him for 'inviting' Russian President Vladimir Putin to 'invade NATO countries,'" Politico said.  

Haley remains the only true challenger to Trump. The former president has lost all of his other foes in the race, including his old second-in-command, former Vice President Mike Pence. The former vice president suspended his presidential campaign on Oct. 28, saying it was “not my time.” However, Trump likely never had much to worry about in that regard, as Pence’s campaign was besieged by financial struggles and consistently low national polling. 

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott also ended his bid for the presidency, announcing in an interview on Nov. 12 that the country was telling him, “not now.” Scott had entered the race trying to paint himself as a moderate Republican who is a supporter of "traditional conservative values." Like Pence, though, Scott’s campaign saw low polling numbers and enthusiasm throughout its short run.

Who doesn't want Trump to be the nominee?

In the 2022 midterms, Trump saw almost all of his endorsed candidates lose by large margins. "It's basically the third election in a row that Donald Trump has cost us the race, and it's like, three strikes, you're out," former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) told CNN.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) would also like to see a fresh face as the GOP's 2024 nominee and said in May she wants someone other than Trump or DeSantis at the top of the Republican ticket. Otherwise, "if that's the contest, Republicans are doomed," she declared. 

And it’s not just politicians who don’t want Trump to be the nominee. An April 2023 AP/NORC poll of 1,230 adults found that 44% of Republicans don’t want the former president to run for the White House again, in addition to 63% of independents who felt the same. However, that same poll found that 86% of Republicans also felt that the indictments against Trump were politically motivated. 

Who thinks Trump will be the nominee?

Quite a few Republicans. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the chair of the House Republican Conference, is one of the highest-ranking GOP members to publicly support Trump's 2024 bid. Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas, a physician who was previously Trump's medical adviser, tweeted, "President Trump is the greatest President I've ever seen. I'm on his side 100%!" 

Other Republicans who have endorsed the former president include Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, 11 GOP senators, and 76 GOP House members, per Insider. The newly-elected speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is also a staunch supporter of Trump, and notably led efforts in 2020 to try and overturn then-President-elect Joe Biden’s victory. Given that Johnson is now the de facto leader of the House of Representatives, his support of Trump could loom large as the election draws closer. 

Many of these names may continue to creep up when it comes to a potential vice presidential pick for Trump. His short list for VP reportedly includes former candidates Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis and Scott, as well as Noem, Florida GOP Rep. Byron Donalds and former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. 

02/21/2024: This article has been updated throughout.