The race is starting so early, and the field is so crowded, that announcing you are not running for president is now a news event.
In the past week, Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York; Deval Patrick, the former governor of Massachusetts; and Michael Avenatti, lawyer for the pornographic actor Stormy Daniels, have all dropped out of contention for the 2020 Democratic nomination.
That huge field will probably include the young and old, men and women, African American, Latino and white people, billionaire capitalists and Democratic socialists, White House veterans and political novices. Motivated by a sense that American values are on fire, it is likely to be the most diverse primary lineup in history.
“We’ve had diversity before but this is the age of identity politics,” said John Zogby, a pollster and author. “A number of newer demographics have come of age. We will also have an age range no one ever thought we could see: a Joe Biden, who’ll be 78 at the time of the election, and a Beto O’Rourke, who’s in his mid-40s.”
But things could get messy, Zogby warned. “The danger here is the party could explode with identity politics and the liberal/progressive split. Do you have to have a woman on the ticket? Do you have to have an African American on the ticket? Do Latinos say: ‘Hey, it’s our turn, we’ve been loyal.’ If you have a 78-year-old on the ticket, do you need a 42-year-old?”
Like runners at the start of a marathon, the potential candidates are jostling for early advantage, wooing donors, recruiting staff, seeking endorsements. Along with the traditional case of why they should occupy the White House and be trusted with nuclear codes, there is also the burning question of how they intend to tackle Donald Trump – go high or go low – in an election that could further enflame tensions around gender and race.
The identity of the nominee is a popular talking point over Washington Christmas drinks. Is Biden too old? Did Senator Elizabeth Warren blow it by taking a DNA test to prove her Native American ancestry? Is O’Rourke the “white Obama”? Could Hillary Clinton stage politics’ greatest comeback?
The principal contenders have not yet officially declared interest, but progressive groups are already polling members about their favourites. Democracy for America has drawn up a list of 23 that includes former vice-president Biden (who recently said he thinks he is “the most qualified person in the country to be president”) and Senators Cory Booker, Sherrod Brown, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Jeff Merkley, Chris Murphy, Bernie Sanders and Warren as well as five members of the House.
Billionaire businessman Tom Steyer, who is campaigning for Trump’s impeachment, makes the poll but fellow tycoon Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, and ex-Starbucks chief executive Howard Schultz do not.
The list contains three individuals who exceeded expectations (though all lost) in the midterms: O’Rourke, Stacey Abrams of Georgia and Andrew Gillum of Florida. O’Rourke has reportedly met Barack Obama at his post-presidency office in Washington and won backing from many in Obama’s circle. Abrams and Gillum are African American.
Neil Sroka, communications director for Democracy for America, said: “There is a certain amount of white privilege that allows people to easily imagine Beto O’Rourke running for president and puts less attention on Abrams or Gillum.”
Democracy for America endorsed Sanders in December 2015 and will run several polls of its members during 2019. Sroka added: “Anyone who thinks they know who’s going to be the nominee in 2020 is either lying or delusional.
“He or she should fight for racial equality just as hard as he or she fights for economic equality. And we need a president that not only rejects the bigotry, hatred and division of Donald Trump but also puts forward a progressive vision.”
Another liberal organisation, MoveOn, is also running an online straw poll and says tens of thousands of its members have voted before Sunday night’s deadline. Its 33 names include Bloomberg, Julián Castro, Bill de Blasio, Tulsi Gabbard, Eric Garcetti, John Hickenlooper, Eric Holder, Joe Kennedy III, Eric Swalwell and author and activist Marianne Williamson.
MoveOn also asks members: “What’s most important to you in a candidate?” The first option on the list is: “Is a woman.” The second is: “Is a person of color.” The eighth and last is: “Has the greatest chance of winning against Trump.”
With an approval rating of around 40%, Trump appears to many to be uniquely vulnerable and tempting for any challenger. But Democrats will be aware that this year they had history on their side: the party that holds the White House tends to sustain losses in the midterm elections. But come 2020, Trump will enjoy the benefits of incumbency, knowing that no sitting president has been defeated since 1992 when George HW Bush lost to Bill Clinton.
Al From, founder of the Democratic Leadership Council and the man who masterminded that result by handpicking Clinton to lead the revival of the party as the New Democrats, said: “The important point, which should not be lost in 2020, is that we ran against George HW Bush but we also ran to reform and change our party.
“The most important thing is for a Democratic candidate is a vision, that he or she has a sense where he or she wants to lead the country and ideas to solve important problems. So far I haven’t seen that from anybody. The country needs leadership – that’s the most important thing – so let it play out for a little while.”
Clinton, Ronald Reagan and Britain’s Tony Blair all had a purpose, From added, while Trump also had a clear idea with his border wall, albeit one that played to Americans’ worst instincts.
Democrats will be anxious to avoid a repeat of the 2016 primaries. On their own side, critics say, it resembled too much of a coronation of Clinton despite Sanders’ surprise insurgent challenge. On the Republican side, there were 17 candidates, a melee that prevented support coalescing around a serious rival to Trump.
Many of the Democratic contenders have already been making moves in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina ahead of their ever-crucial caucuses and primaries. But the delegate-heavy California primary is much earlier in the cycle, which could change the calculation. The eventual winner will be anointed at the party convention in July 2020.
Michael Cornfield, a political scientist at George Washington University, said: “I think it will be someone different from Donald Trump in style and manner but someone who, like Trump, identifies a latent issue whose time has come. With Trump it was border security. The Democrats will have to find someone who can perform similar alchemy and find an issue that is both new and urgent. I haven’t heard that yet. It could be someone we’ve never heard of or it could be Joe Biden.”