GOP reps' embrace, absence during Trump's CNY visit speak to electoral interests

During President Donald Trump's visit to central New York on Monday, Rep. Claudia Tenney had him publicly campaign for her. Rep. Elise Stefanik showed that she got the commander-in-chief to visit Fort Drum. And Rep. John Katko was nowhere to be seen.

And yet, those specific roles each of the region’s House Republicans had with the president may have perfectly been in their best electoral interests.

All three have been targeted by national Democratic leaders hoping to retake the House in this November's midterm elections. And their Democratic opponents are wasting little time making Trump a significant part of their campaigns and tying him to the Republican incumbents.

Tenney, Stefanik and Katko have each had different relationships with the president.

Tenney, who represents New York's 22nd Congressional District, has been a strong ally of Trump during her tenure. According to Five Thirty-Eight, she has voted in favor of the president's policies 97 percent of the time. She supported the Republican House's healthcare overhaul legislation, has been a strong advocate for the GOP tax law and largely mirrored Trump's views on trade. She has also made statements that echo Trump's bombastic rhetoric, telling CNN in January she agreed with Trump that Democrats who didn't stand for parts of his State of the Union address were "un-American" and that "they don't love our country."

"Tenney is gambling that the district is as conservative as she is, and that it wants to have a vocal advocate of those views," said Grant Reeher, professor of political science at the Maxwell School at Syracuse University.

Tenney handedly won her first election to the congressional district seat in 2016, which represents Chenango, Cortland, Madison, and Oneida counties, and parts of Broome, Herkimer, Oswego, and Tioga counties. Trump also carried the district and won all the counties that make up the district.

"We're thrilled that after decades of bad policies — sometimes from both parties — to have an ally standing with us and fighting for our region," Tenney said Monday in Utica.

RELATED | President Trump stumps for Rep. Tenney in Utica, lambastes prominent NY Democrats

As popular as both Trump and Tenney are in the district, some Democrats think Tenney is one of the more vulnerable Republicans in the country this fall. According to Cook Political Report in Washington, the district is currently listed in the " Republican Toss-Up" column," giving Tenney an advantage of +6.

“Hopefully, we’ll put Claudia right over the top where she belongs," Trump said at Monday's fundraiser.

Before heading to Utica, Trump made an appearance at Fort Drum, where he was invited by Rep. Elise Stefanik, whose 21st Congressional District includes the fort.

Stefanik has a 90 percent voting track with the president, but has kept a marginal distance from him in some capacity. She voted for the healthcare bill, but voted against the tax law, and has been hawkish on Russia amid the special counsel's investigation into election meddling.

RELATED |President Trump praises troops, signs military spending bill at Fort Drum

She has made Fort Drum and the military at large a big part of both her campaigns — enough so that she had no problem defeating a former Army colonel by 20 points in her 2016 re-election.

"I have to tell you about Elise," Trump said. "She called me so many times. I said 'I don't want to take her call.' She wanted me to be here. I said 'I won't be able to.' We'll have to change a lot of scheduling. But that didn't suit her. She didn't stop, and here we are."

By inviting Trump to the base — where he signed the military spending bill that includes pay hikes for military personnel, Reeher said the gesture keeps the election local in an otherwise nationalized midterms.

"For Stefanik, she is betting that the district will distinguish and appreciate the nuance of her approach toward the president— of supporting at a distance, in order to help with the district," Reeher said.

Reeher added that Stefanik strikes him as "more naturally cautious and conservative — with a small c —" than Tenney, who he says is more issue-driven.

Though neither of Trump's visits were geographically located inside Rep. Katko's district, there was some thought that he may partake in some form. Katko has hosted several members of the Trump administration in central New York this summer. Vice President Mike Pence attended a fundraiser for Katko in Syracuse back in June. Katko also met with Ivanka Trump and U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry in July.

SEE ALSO | Trump visit to CNY comes with protests in Watertown, Utica

Katko’s moderate stance has separated him from Trump on many occasions before he was elected and since – a stance that has garnered him support from a good number of Democrats. The 24th Congressional District is one of only 23 in the country that voted for Hillary Clinton for president but sent a Republican to Congress in 2016. In Onondaga County, Clinton got 33,000 more votes than Trump, but Katko received 15,000 more votes than his Democratic rival.

“Katko wants to convince voters that he should not lumped in with Trump, or for that matter, with the Tenneys in his own party,” Reeher said. “His Democratic opponent is trying to argue that the distinction is not one of meaningful substance, even if there is a difference in style.”

Historically a competitive district, Cook Political Report lists Katko’s race in the “likely Republican” column.

As for Trump, the most recent Siena College poll found that he was viewed unfavorably by 55 percent of upstate voters and favorably by 41 percent.