Immigration: GOP divide over issue could have far-reaching implications for Ryan, 2018 midterms

WASHINGTON – Rep. Jeff Denham faces a tough path to re-election in his California district, where about 45% of the voters are Hispanic and the electorate is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.  

Rep. Jim Jordan is expected to breeze to re-election in his Ohio district, where only 3% of the voters are Hispanic and the electorate is overwhelmingly Republican. 

These two lawmakers are at opposite ends of a bitter Republican showdown over immigration, with Denham wooing a moderate, diverse constituency and Jordan looking to energize the GOP's Tea Party base.

The outcome could have far-reaching implications for Republicans as they head into the 2018 midterm elections. And it could carry immediate significance for retiring House Speaker Paul Ryan, who faces unrest as a lame-duck leader trying to steer his conference through the political minefield of immigration policy. 

Ryan shrugged off questions on Tuesday about whether he was losing his grip on the speaker's gavel. The Wisconsin Republican plans to retire at the end of this Congress, but he has vowed to remain at the helm of the House GOP conference through the end of the year.

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"Obviously I serve at the pleasure of the members," Ryan said at a news conference Tuesday when asked about possible efforts to oust him. "But I think we all agree the best thing for us is to complete our agenda and not wedge ... a divisive leadership election" into the mix.

Still, Ryan acknowledged the immigration fight has driven his GOP conference into two warring camps.

"We clearly have members at opposite ends of our spectrum who are frustrated with one another," Ryan said. "That can happen in a big majority party." 

The fight spilled into the open last week, when Jordan and other conservatives in the  House Freedom Caucus demanded a vote on a hard-line immigration bill, sponsored by Judiciary Chair Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, that would slash legal immigration and authorize construction of President Trump's proposed border wall. They killed an unrelated farm bill in a muscle-flexing maneuver aimed at forcing Ryan to bring their bill to the House floor.

The conservative immigration measure does not have enough votes to pass the House, but hard-liners want to force lawmakers to go on the record on an issue that helped catapult Trump to the White House — and that is now dominating the 2018 Republican primaries. 

“Republican primary voters are the most opinionated and the most passionate about border security of any voter segment in the country," said Frank Luntz, a Republican political consultant. "And to them, the immigration solution has to involve significant efforts at the border, not just addressing those who are here illegally now."

A soft approach to immigration, Jordan said on Tuesday, "is contrary to the mandate of the 2016 election." He and other hard-liners have argued that Republicans have to make good on that campaign promise or they risk the ire of conservative voters.  

For moderate Republicans, the calculation is completely different, but just as politically charged. 

"There needs to be a permanent fix for DREAMers," Denham told reporters Tuesday morning.

The DREAMers are undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children. Many of them were thrown into legal limbo last year when Trump ended the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which granted roughly 700,000 of them temporary legal status. Federal courts have forced the administration to keep the program running, but Republicans such as Denham want a permanent solution for the DACA recipients so they do not have to fear deportation.

Denham is part of a rump faction of moderates who have joined with nearly all Democrats to push a rare maneuver known as a "discharge petition" to try to force a series of immigration votes. The conservative legislation hard-liners are pushing for would be one of the bills brought up, though it is expected to fail.

The legislation that is most likely to pass, is a bipartisan immigration bill with far broader support, including from many Democrats. That bill would grant U.S. citizenship to some DREAMers, strengthen border security, and leave the legal immigration system as is.

"My dairy farmers, they need a legal workforce," said Rep. Chris Collins, a moderate from New York who has signed the discharge petition.

"We can’t go into Nov. 6 (Election Day) and go home and tell in my case, my dairy farmers, that we did nothing," Collins said. "They're upset." 

If a majority of House members sign on to the discharge petition, it would go straight to the floor, bypassing GOP leaders. Ryan has blasted the petition maneuver, saying it would hand power over to House Democrats and help pass a bill that Trump opposes. 

Last week, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is vying to succeed Ryan, told Republicans during a closed-door meeting that if Republicans pass a moderate immigration bill, it would depress voter turnout among the GOP base and hand the House over to Democrats. 

Ryan has been unable to find a compromise between the two factions so far, and his lame-duck status has left him with little leverage. The Weekly Standard  reported on Saturday that top Republicans and White House officials were discussing a plan to force Ryan out early and make way for McCarthy, R-Calif., to take the speaker's spot.

Standing beside Ryan at Tuesday's GOP leadership news conference, McCarthy said that report was "not true" and insisted Republicans were focused on passing their legislative agenda, not a messy leadership fight.

Ryan said he was working hard to bridge the divide in his conference.

"What we’re trying to do is find where the consensus sweet spot is," he said. "It’s a very difficult issue."

Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise, the GOP whip, said Monday that the House would bring up the conservative Goodlatte bill for a vote before June 22.

If the discharge petition gets enough signatures, the earliest it can be brought to the floor would be June 25. If the Goodlatte bill is brought up before the discharge petition it would nullify the petition.

Collins said Ryan has an "all but impossible" task of forging consensus between the two camps. But he said the speaker's job is not in danger, if for no other reason than because no one else could get the 218 votes it would take to win election as the new GOP speaker. 

"We are in tumultuous times," Collins said. "I couldn’t imagine the turmoil if somehow we tried to, on top of everything else, elect a new speaker with 218 votes. It’s just improbable." 

Of course, even if House Republicans come to a compromise, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., could decide not to bring up the legislation in the Senate, which is much more narrowly divided and legislation must be bipartisan to pass.

Michael Steel, who used to be spokesman for former GOP speaker John Boehner, said House Republicans should not be deterred by the Senate's potential to kill a bill before it even hits the floor.

“You can’t win if you don’t play. While it’s unlikely that the Senate will take it up and unlikely that the House and Senate together will produce a product that the president is willing to sign, there’s people who believe that it’s important to try," he said.