Another 'flip flop' in Congress? 2018 midterms give Democrats hope

THERESA, Wis. -- U.S. Rep. Glenn Grothman, R-Wis., should be feeling safe heading into this year’s elections: He’s a two-term incumbent in a rural-suburban district that hasn’t elected a Democrat since the 1960s. Donald Trump had a 17-point margin of victory here over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

But last year, Grothman – a longtime state legislator from the 6th Congressional District that stretches from Lake Michigan through the center of the state north of Milwaukee and Madison – told people he could be facing the “toughest race of my political career.” Fundraising was lagging and a potentially viable Democratic opponent – Dan Kohl, the nephew of former U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl – was mounting a challenge.

At a recent town hall meeting in Theresa, a village about 40 miles north of Milwaukee, Grothman heard constituents fret over Social Security, immigration, the debt, farming and more – and not all of them happy with the direction of a Republican-led Congress.

“The truth is, I’ve always been a Republican, but I’m starting to feel like the Republican Party does not represent me at all,” said 57-year-old Anne Rinzel, who raises crops in nearby Lomira. She's an advocate for the Affordable Care Act, saying it’s helped pay her daughter’s medical bills. 

“There doesn’t seem to be any balance in Washington,” she said after the meeting. “It just flip-flops from two extremes.”

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Another such flip may be coming. 

Across the nation, Democrats have appeared increasingly bullish on taking back one or both chambers of Congress, fueled by low approval numbers for President Donald Trump and high voter enthusiasm among their supporters. Qualified candidates seem to be lining up to take on entrenched Republicans or vie for open seats not only in toss-up districts in California, New York or New Jersey – which Hillary Clinton won easily -- but in areas that Trump won by a comfortable margin, particularly in suburban enclaves or around university centers in the Midwest and elsewhere.

As more Republicans drop out – like House Appropriations Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen of New Jersey did in late January after 23 years in the House – Democrats become more hopeful of winning not only toss-up elections but those in districts like the Wisconsin 6th, where victory has been out of reach.

“Normally you’d think Grothman’s district is safe,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School Poll. “But when we see a real wave election, safe seats don’t stay safe.”

With that in mind, the USA TODAY Network consulted voters, analysts and handicappers, academics and experts spread across 14 states to put together a list of 25 bellwether races – campaigns that, over the next nine months, could help indicate whether Democrats are riding a wave that could give them control of Congress.

Those races stretch from Southern California to upstate New York, from a South Florida House race to statewide Senate races in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. Some involve special elections – like one in southwestern Pennsylvania, scheduled for March 13 – in staunchly Republican districts. 

Not all of them are toss-ups, either: Democrats would have to win especially close districts – such as those for Republican-held seats in Southern California, South Florida or Northern Virginia where Clinton beat Trump – to have any chance of retaking Congress. 

To come up with the list, the USA TODAY Network also looked at districts – like Grothman’s in Wisconsin – where Democratic signs of life may indicate a sea change even if they don’t capture them.

Many see political newcomers, especially women and veterans, vying for seats. Most, though not all, are in areas where, if Trump won in 2016, he did so by a margin that Democrats or local experts believe they can overcome. In many, Democrats already appear to be in a position to compete. 

Consider:

--In the 1st district seat in Iowa, represented by two-term U.S. Rep. Rod Blum, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed dismal approval ratings for Trump and a 47%-29% edge for a generic Democrat. Four Democrats – including state Rep. Abby Finkenauer and former Labor Department official Thomas Heckroth – make up a potentially strong slate of challengers for Blum.

--In Michigan’s 8th district outside Detroit, where Trump won with 51% to 44% for Clinton, U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop has drawn a Democratic field that includes a former assistant Defense secretary and intelligence officer, Elissa Slotkin, who served Democratic and Republican presidents, did three tours in Iraq and has posted strong fundraising numbers, outraising Bishop in each of the last two quarters.

--In Kentucky’s 6th district, where Trump won by 16 points, U.S. Rep. Andy Barr faces a Democratic field that currently includes the mayor of Lexington, a sitting state senator and a retired U.S. Marine lieutenant colonel and pilot, Amy McGrath, whose initial campaign video went viral as she walked down a runway with jets lined up behind her, telling the camera, “Some are telling me a Democrat can’t win that battle in Kentucky. We’ll see about that.” Local political experts believe Barr is in trouble.

--In New Jersey’s 11th district, where Trump eked out a 49%-48% win over Clinton and Frelinghuysen stepped down, the Democratic slate includes Mikie Sherrill, a former federal prosecutor, Navy helicopter pilot and mother of four. Voter anger in the state over the tax reform bill – which Frelinghuysen rejected but his party embraced – is running high.

--In Ohio’s 1st district in southwestern Ohio, longtime Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot drew a challenge in late January from Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval – who had been courted by Democrats after beating another entrenched Republican for his current job. Chabot served 14 years in Congress before getting knocked out of office in a Democratic wave in 2008, then regained the seat two years later. Trump won the district in 2016 by a 6-point margin.

TALL ORDER TO TAKE CONGRESS

No one knows whether a Democratic wave is coming, but some signs point to it. The Real Clear Politics average of polls show Democrats with a 6.5-percentage-point  edge over Republicans on a nationwide generic ballot – a substantial margin but short of clear evidence of a building wave. In fact, some more recent polls have shown that margin narrowing further and a slight improvement in Trump’s favorable ratings.

Even if the Democratic edge grows, however, retaking Congress is no small order. Winning the House would mean flipping 24 seats held by Republicans. Flipping the Senate would mean retaining 26 seats held by Democrats or independent senators who caucus with them and picking up two more – a challenge experts believe is even tougher than retaking the House.

Republicans, meanwhile, are counting on a strong economy and the passage of the recent tax bill – which should mean fatter paychecks for many families – to buoy them and limit losses that normally happen to the party in power in a midterm election. Democrats also face headwinds from a midterm electorate that typically skews older, whiter and less urban – which could hurt their chances – and congressional district lines which have, in many states, been drawn to protect Republican officeholders.

“I think what you could say is (overall) midterm elections tend to not be particularly kind to Democrats. That’s true in the last two or three decades,” said Norm Ornstein, a congressional expert at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute. 

Still, said Ornstein, Democrats should be bolstered by what they’re seeing so far, especially by the ire Trump’s surprise election over Clinton seems to have engendered and the enthusiasm with which candidates have lined up to take on Republicans. On the other side of the aisle, 28 Republicans have either left Congress already or announced their retirements, besides those who are running for higher office or left to join the Trump administration.

With competitive races around the country, huge sums of outside money are expected to flow – and already have, in some places. More than $3 million has been staked against U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., for instance. House Speaker Paul Ryan’s Congressional Leadership Fund is pushing a $100 million campaign to protect districts and has opened field offices in 27 races so far. Democratic groups, meanwhile, have spent heavily in races including the Alabama special election, which produced a stunning win for new-U.S. Sen. Doug Jones, a Democrat, in December.

Experts say the primaries may signal what’s to come in November.

“If you see Democrats up by 10% on the generic ballot, that puts them in a decent position,” said Geoffrey Skelley at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, one of the experts the USA TODAY Network consulted in developing its list of bellwether districts. “Have candidates everywhere you can, and maybe you can catch a wave. At the moment it looks like the environment is going to be good for them. Good enough to win back the House? Possibly.”

A win in the House – which has been out of Democratic control since 2011 – would be a sea change in Washington, just as it was seven years ago when then-President Barack Obama saw his party lose the majority and, with it, the power to push through legislation.

Nathan Gonzales, at Washington-based Inside Elections, agreed. He said national polling showing an advantage for Democrats is a “starting point,” but the picture remains incomplete until data from individual districts starts showing up.

“We have insufficient data,” he said. “The history (of the party in power losing seats in midterm elections) is in favor of the Democrats … but I don’t feel comfortable getting too specific. The numbers are good for Democrats now, but we have a long way to go.”

EARLY RACES GIVE CLUES

Since the 2016 election, Democrats already have won gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia and elected Jones in a special Senate election over Republican Roy Moore in deeply red Alabama.

Moore was hamstrung by accusations from several women of sexual misconduct by him when they were teenagers, a charge Moore denied.

The next sign of things to come may be glimpsed in a special election in southwestern Pennsylvania on March 13, in a staunchly Republican district where Trump beat Clinton by nearly 20 points. Former congressman Tim Murphy resigned the seat in October after reports surfaced that he urged a woman with whom he had an affair to have an abortion.

Running to replace Murphy is Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone and Democrat, Marine veteran and former federal prosecutor Conor Lamb. Even if Lamb loses, however, a close race in such a red district could suggest headwinds for the Republicans going into the fall.

Another sign of new Democratic strength: In a January special election, Republicans lost a Wisconsin state Senate seat the party had held for 17 years. Republican Gov. Scott Walker called it “a wake-up call.” 

Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, finding current congressional districts in the state to be unconstitutional, ordered the map redrawn by Feb. 15 or it would redraw the map itself. 

That new map could upend several districts in Pennsylvania, potentially increasing Democratic chances in areas currently represented by Republicans, especially those around Philadelphia, where Trump eked out victories or lost.

Experts say some or most of the Democratic gains can be attributed to Trump, who continues to have record low approval ratings. The Real Clear Politics average of approval polls had Trump’s numbers at 42% approval, 54% disapproval on Feb. 7. While slightly improved from his average a few weeks before, the statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight.com showed that was still lower than any other president’s approval rating after one year in office dating back to Harry Truman.

Ben Rumeau, a 27-year-old conservative in Philadelphia, said he initially supported Trump’s run for president, but has soured on him. 

“When I first heard he was running, I thought it sounded like a good idea,” he said. “Then I heard him speak. Since then, I’ve become increasingly convinced that he’s an idiot. I’m really hoping Mueller’s investigation (into Russian involvement in the 2016 election) results in impeachment.”

That sentiment is far from uniform across the nation, however. In Frelinghuysen’s district, for instance, Steven Rogers, a Nutley council member and occasional FOX News contributor, said the retiring chairman hurt himself by not being more friendly to Trump. “I’ve said over and over again we want to support people who are all-in for the president,” Rogers said.

Rachel Reddick, a lawyer and Navy veteran, is running as a Democrat in Pennsylvania’s 8th district north of Philadelphia against Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. It’s an area Franklin & Marshall University political analyst G. Terry Madonna says has been trending more liberal, with a strong bloc of college-education women voters.

“The folks that I talk to … are extremely disappointed in the direction that the country is going,” Reddick said.

But while Democrats are aiming to pick up seats in several key states and appear to have viable candidates in far more races than in other recent years, there are still places where lesser known candidates will be asked to carry their party’s banner. 

For instance, in the rural-and-blue-collar 24th district of New York hugging Lake Ontario, two-term U.S. Rep. John Katko faces several Democratic challengers in an area that went for Clinton in 2016. But former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, who some hoped would get into the race, is not among them. 

In Ohio’s 12th district, north of Columbus, a special election to fill U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi’s seat will be held in August in an area that, despite going for Trump by 11 points, is considered another potential bellwether of Democratic chances. The race has drawn a large field in both parties. 

Delaware County Prosecutor Carol O’Brien, one member of a strong six-person GOP field, said, “The 12th district is considered a safe district for Republicans. I don’t think it’s going to change.”

In the 18th district in Florida, U.S. Rep. Brian Mast holds a South Florida seat previously held by a Democrat. But in a district Trump won by 9 points, Mast – an Army veteran who lost both his legs in Afghanistan and who took office last year – is still seen as having an edge, with plenty of money in the bank and no high-profile Democrat yet challenging him. 

Two Democrats, Navy veteran and lawyer Pam Keith and former Obama foreign relations adviser Lauren Baer — who is seen as the frontrunner for the nomination by some — are hoping to raise their visibility in the weeks to come, however.

In other districts, large Democratic fields lacking a candidate with large name-recognition could prove a challenge. In California’s 45th district, for example, U.S. Rep. Mimi Walters is in a battleground district facing a field currently comprised of seven Democrats and an independent. Because of California’s voting rules, the top two vote getters in the consolidated primary – regardless of party – will run against each other in the general, giving Walters a potential edge.

One voter in that district, Elizabeth Vadera, of Irvine, said she’s “cautiously optimistic” a Democrat could win. But she acknowledged she wasn’t familiar with all the contenders yet.

Meanwhile, in California’s 39th district, Rep. Ed Royce’s decision to retire may have bolstered Republican chances despite a Democratic field that includes businessman Andy Thorburn, pediatrician Mai Khanh Tran and Navy veteran and philanthropist Gilbert Cisneros, since the Republican candidates can run as outsiders and distance themselves from Trump.

“I think that the Democrats would have a harder time turning that district now than they would have had if Royce hadn’t stepped down,” said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a public policy communications professor at the University of Southern California. 

PASS THE MONEY PLATE

Fundraising numbers suggest that many Democrats are not only taking their chances seriously but putting themselves in a position to compete -- either by raising strong war chests from donors or tapping into their own personal funds. 

In upstate New York’s 19th district, Republican U.S. Rep. John Faso, had been outraised by two Democratic challengers at the end of December – attorney and former music company executive Antonio Delgado and Brian Flynn, the president of a medical device manufacturing company. Each raised well more than $1 million, in Flynn’s case in part through a $650,000 loan to his committee. Veteran and small business owner Pat Ryan also outraised Faso in the last three months of the year and had almost as much cash on hand as the incumbent, while Delgado and Flynn had hundreds of thousands more in their warchests.

In the race for Royce’s seat, Thorburn has loaned his election effort $2.3 million out of his own pocket; Cisneros, a lottery winner, $1.3 million. In the race for Freylinghuysen’s seat, Sherrill has raised more than $1.2 million and, in Grothman’s Wisconsin district, Kohl has outraised the incumbent over the last 6-month period by more than $200,000. In the race for Kentucky’s 6th, McGrath has raised more than $1.1 million – less than Barr’s $1.5 million, but a significant amount for a previously unknown challenger. 

Kentucky Republican Party spokesman Tres Watson predicted it won’t be enough, saying any wave – if one is coming – won’t wash over the district. 

“This race is one of those races where Democrats in D.C. look at it and say, ‘It’s a Republican-held seat that used to be Democrat-held, it’s centered on a liberal college town, this should be a seat we should pick up. The population trend is just enough where I don’t think you can do that,” he said. 

While Democrats’ enthusiasm grows, however, the party is facing potential losses in the Senate. In some states represented by Democrats like Montana, North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri, Trump put up big numbers – emboldening Republicans to try to wrest those seats away. 

U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly, an Indiana Democrat, faces a field of several Republicans – including U.S. Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer and self-funded millionaire businessman Mike Braun. Still, Paul Helmke, a former mayor of Fort Wayne and professor at Indiana University’s School of Public and Environmental Affairs, gives Donnelly a chance. 

“My gut sense is it’s a 50-50 race,” he said. But others wonder whether his chances are that good, noting that former senator and governor Evan Bayh got waxed by Republican Todd Young by 10 points in 2016 and that Donnelly beat a Republican, Richard Mourdock, in 2012 who infamously proclaimed that when a woman gets pregnant from rape “it is something God intended.”

Republicans also are eyeing pickups in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, states that together backed Trump by slim margins in 2016 – the first time since 1984 they’d all favored a Republican presidential nominee. But those may be hard states to crack with incumbent senators running. 

Instead, key battles may shape up in Nevada. U.S. Sen. Dean Heller is facing a primary challenge from Danny Tarkanian, a pro-Trump, anti-establishment firebrand running to his right, and, on the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Jacky Rosen, who was elected in 2016. Clinton won Nevada 48%-46%, raising the possibility of a Democratic pickup, though the party might prefer to run against Tarkanian rather than Heller, who has tried to take a more moderate stance, especially regarding the Affordable Care Act.

In Arizona, a two-race battle is shaping up: First, for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican Jeff Flake. On the Democratic side, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, one of the most moderate members of the House, is considered a strong contender in that race. Among Republicans, however, the August primary includes former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was pardoned by Trump for contempt of court for a case involving civil rights infractions; former state Sen. Kelli Ward, an immigration hardliner; and U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, a former combat pilot. 

The second key race will be for McSally’s House seat, which went for Clinton in 2016.

In a state that backed Trump by less than 4 percentage points, the Republican primary could be key. Richard Herrera, an Arizona State University political science professor, said the level of support for Trump in the state could decide it. 

“Is it, ‘I’ll vote for the president no matter what,’ or is it, ‘I support Republican Party principles,’” he said, since Arpaio and Ward may duel for the mantle of being most loyal to Trump, while McSally could claim the party’s best interests. 

“You would anticipate that the primary election will get pretty down and dirty, given the stakes,” said Herrera. “This is an open seat, which doesn’t come around very often.”

Trump, though, could be a wild card in many places.

In Rep. Brian Mast’s South Florida district, 57-year-old Sue Fox of Palm City said she was a lifelong Republican. But last March, after watching former FBI Director James Comey testify about alleged Russian interference in the 2016 elections, she said she drove to the Martin County offices and changed her affiliation to Democrat.

She has since joined Indivisible Martin, a local chapter of a national group that says it was formed “to fight the Trump agenda.”

She doesn’t know whether Indivisible’s efforts to canvass the county and turn out its members to town hall meetings will succeed in flipping a county that Trump won with 62% of the vote. But she says it has given her solace and strength nonetheless.

“It was despair,” she said. “That despair turned to hope.”

Contact Todd Spangler at 703-854-8947 or at tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler. Contributing to this story were Joel Shannon and Randy Parker in York, Pa.; Ronald Hansen in Phoenix; Thomas Novelly in Louisville; Joseph Spector in Albany; Ali Schmitz in Tallahassee; Jason Noble in Des Moines; Robert King and Greg Weaver in Indianapolis; Maureen Groppe and Herb Jackson in the USA Today Washington bureau; Corinne Kennedy in Palm Springs; William Glauber in Milwaukee; Jessie Balmert in Columbus; Scott Wartman and Jason Williams in Cincinnati; and Joel Ebert, Andy Humbles and Natalie Allison in Nashville.