The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NY-19: Oh, groan. Actress Diane Neal, best known for her recurring role on "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit," has kicked off an independent bid in New York's 19th Congressional District, a move that could only hurt Democrats seeking to pick up this vulnerable seat. Neal describes herself as "a little Libertarian," "a lot liberal," and "mostly progressive," but her overall pitch as a candidate is just the pits.
Campaign Action
In an interview with the Daily Freeman, Neal bragged that she once stuck a chopstick in Donald Trump's hair on the set of "The Apprentice" (where she was a judge) to see if it was real. Then she explained that after listening to a debate among the Democrats running to unseat freshman GOP Rep. John Faso, she decided, "I didn't hear was how any of them would appeal to anyone outside of this room, [such as] my cross-bow neighbor who gives me sweet venison." Ah, yes, crossbow dude is definitely gonna listen to the TV star who talks about clowning on Trump! (Incidentally, one Democrat in the race, Pat Ryan, is an Iraq vet and West Point graduate, so he probably knows a thing or two about weaponry.)
Neal concluded by boasting, "I have this amazing ability to be able to take really complicated policy and break it down into edible sound bites, which is something most progressive liberals cannot do." Sure she does, like how she just celebsplained venison to us. Fortunately, she still has to gather 3,500 signatures to get on the ballot, a task she hopefully does not have an amazing ability at completing.
Gubernatorial
● CA-Gov: Policy Analysis for California Education, a nonpartisan research center, has released a new poll of California's governor's race, jointly conducted by Tulchin Research, a Democratic firm, and Moore Information, a Republican outfit. Like every other survey, this one shows Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom in first place in June's top-two primary, taking 29 percent of the vote.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (who, due to rules limiting how candidates may describe themselves on the ballot, is identified as "businessman") is well behind with 11 percent, while actual businessman John Cox, the leading Republican, is in third place at 10. The rest of the field is in single digits, but overall, Democratic candidates collectively earn 56 percent of the vote while Republicans take just 22 (with 18 percent undecided), pointing toward a disastrous general election lockout for the GOP.
● FL-Gov: A new poll of Florida's gubernatorial primaries from Mason-Dixon finds former Rep. Gwen Graham edging Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine 20-17 on the Democratic side, with Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum back at 10 percent and businessman Chris King at just 4. Meanwhile, among Republicans, state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam has a similarly narrow 27-23 lead on Rep. Ron DeSantis, while state House Speaker Richard Corcoran is a distant third at just 7 percent. (That helps explain the berserk racist TV ad he recently launched.) In both races, a wide plurality of voters remain undecided, so both nominations remain very much up for grabs.
● GA-Gov: Former state Sen. Hunter Hill has just gone up with his first TV ad ahead of the May 22 GOP primary for governor and is spending a reported $365,000 to air it "in every major Georgia media market." The spot features Hill, a former Army Ranger, charging through a muddy obstacle course in fatigues while a pair of men in suits (meant to resemble his two main rivals, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp) struggle to keep up. Hill says he'll "stop sanctuary cities and eliminate the state income tax," then, jerking a thumb at his opponents, says they'll "never make it out of the swamp."
● IL-Gov: Yet another batch of previously undisclosed tapes of phone calls between billionaire J.B. Pritzker and disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich has now seen the light of day courtesy of the Chicago Tribune, and they contain some pretty unpleasant dialog between the two men about how to fill the Senate vacancy created by Barack Obama's 2008 presidential victory. In particular, the conversation focuses heavily on race, with Pritzker advising Blago to choose Secretary of State Jesse White, because such a selection "covers you on the African-American thing" and would be the "least offensive" option. The conversation continued in the same vein, though it's probably little different from the kinds of discussions that go on behind closed doors all the time.
After initially striking a defiant tone, accusing the Tribune of "colluding" with GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner, Pritzker offered an apology. However, his remarks are already causing some real awkwardness for him on the campaign trail, especially since White has endorsed his campaign for governor and even appeared in a video on his behalf. White says he wasn't offended and still supports Pritzker, but Pritzker's two main rivals for the Democratic nomination, Daniel Biss and Chris Kennedy, both blasted him, with Biss saying that "two influential white men making political calculations based on skin color … perpetuates a racist system."
Even more worrisome, though, is the possibility that there are even more skeletons rattling around in Pritzker's closet. Last year, a batch of recordings emerged that featured similarly skeezy, transactional conversations between Pritzker and Blago, mostly centered around Pritzker trying to get himself appointed state treasurer. Rauner has been airing ads with clips of these talks in an effort to damage Pritzker, the nominal Democratic frontrunner.
If Pritzker, who leads in the polls thanks to a massive, self-funded spending blitz, manages to stumble his way to the nomination in spite of himself, who knows what else might lie in wait for him in the general election?
● MO-Gov: An attorney for the ex-husband of the woman with whom Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens had an affair, then allegedly blackmailed with a compromising photo, says that his client has been subpoenaed by a St. Louis grand jury to testify about the matter. A spokesperson for the St. Louis Circuit Attorney's office, which is investigating the matter, would not confirm or deny that a grand jury had been convened, though the attorney for the ex-husband, Alvin Watkins, suggested that the development signals that the inquiry has "been stepped up a notch."
● MN-Gov: Former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty just took a very concrete step toward a comeback bid, announcing on Tuesday that he'd be stepping down from his post as head of the Financial Services Roundtable next month. That job will still be a major albatross for T-Paw, though, because FSR is the top lobbying group for the nation's largest Wall Street banks, and Pawlenty has led the organization from its headquarters in Washington, DC. "Washington lobbyist for Wall Street" is pretty much attack-ad bingo right there.
● OH-Gov: On Tuesday, EMILY's List endorsed former state Rep. Connie Pillich, who is the only woman still seeking the Democratic nomination in Ohio's gubernatorial race this year but remains a decided underdog. That's in part because the two other prominent women who had been running, former Rep. Betty Sutton and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, both dropped out and gave their support to former state Attorney General Richard Cordray not long after he entered the contest, helping him cement his status as the frontrunner. (Sutton even joined Cordray's ticket as his running-mate.) We haven't seen any reliable polling yet, but Cordray has far outraised Pillich despite the fact that she's been in the race much longer than he has.
● TX-Gov: The March 6 gubernatorial primary in Texas is swiftly approaching, but what had looked like Democrats' first competitive contest in years may turn out to be a fizzle. Wealthy businessman Andrew White, who is the son of late Gov. Mark White and a self-described "very conservative Democrat," raised $100,000 and loaned his campaign $1 million in January. That isn't a huge sum for such an expensive state, but it's in a whole different league than former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, who recently resigned to run. Valdez raised a very weak $48,500 last month, even less than the $50,000 she took in during December.
Valdez may have started the primary with more name recognition and a natural constituency with Latino voters, who have historically tended to vote for fellow Latinos over white candidates. However, Texas' size makes it is an incredibly expensive place to campaign, and pulling in just shy of six figures over two months likely wouldn't cut it in a congressional primary, let alone a statewide contest for governor. Running against GOP Gov. Greg Abbott and his $43 million war chest was always going to be a herculean task for Democrats in what is still a decidedly red state, but having a strong Democrat at the top of the ticket who can help drive turnout could pay dividends in winnable down-ballot races.
House
● AZ-08: Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs, a member of the notorious House Freedom Caucus, just endorsed former state Sen. Debbie Lesko, who's seeking the GOP nod in the special election for the state's 8th Congressional District. The primary, in which five notable Republicans are competing, is on Feb. 27, with a general election to follow on April 24.
● CA-39: Navy veteran and one-time Mega Millions lottery winner Gil Cisneros has done an assiduous job courting the members of California's congressional delegation, and he just landed the endorsement of one more, Rep. Salud Carbajal. While most of these representatives don't have any direct influence in the area where Cisneros is actually running, all these gets indicate he has a sharp political operation and knows how to rally establishment support.
● FL-05: Tinpot dictator Donald Trump declared that Democrats who didn't clap for him during his State of the Union speech last week were "treasonous," particularly alluding to members of the Congressional Black Caucus, who remained silent after he declared he was "very proud" of the low rate of African-American unemployment. But one member of the CBC did applaud, freshman Rep. Al Lawson, who proceeded to earn praise from Trump as a result. ("I'm going to send him a letter of thank you," Trump said.)
It's incredible that Lawson would do such a thing in the first place, but all the more so since he just earned a primary challenge from former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown. Brown pointed out that black unemployment is almost double the rate among whites and slammed Lawson for being "content with this alternate reality." We'll see if this turns into a serious campaign issue, but earning the title of Trump's favorite Democrat is not, shall we say, an asset.
● NH-01: What do you do after raising a pathetic amount for a swingy open congressional seat? Bash your GOP primary rival's even worse haul, of course! Former state Liquor Commission official Eddie Edwards took in just $60,000 in the fourth quarter and self-funded another $20,000. But that terrible amount looks like a strong campaign compared to state Sen. Andy Sanborn, who raised just $16,000. However, Sanborn finished December with $173,000 in cash-on-hand compared to Edwards' $128,000.
The fundraising pace from Sanborn and Edwards should leave the GOP worried they may not even be competitive in what should be one of their top offensive opportunities this year, but they may yet find a more viable nominee. Carroll County Commissioner Mark Hounsell jumped into the race only last month and thus doesn't have a fundraising report, but Republicans had better hope he proves more up to the challenge than this primary rivals.
While Republicans are struggling to run viable campaigns in this 48-47 Trump district in eastern New Hampshire, Democrats aren't in the same boat. Former Department of Veterans Affairs official Maura Sullivan led the pack with a strong $435,000 raised and $369,000 cash-on-hand. The only other Democrat to break six-figures without self-funding was Executive Councilor Chris Pappas, who took in a decent $219,000 and had $208,000 in the bank. Former longtime state AFL-CIO leader Mark MacKenzie raised just $31,000, but self-funded another $100,000 to finish the quarter with $124,000 on-hand. However, former Somersworth Mayor Lincoln Soldati had just $56,000 on-hand, while state Rep. Mindi Messmer and retired Army Capt. Terence O'Rourke both raised insignificant amounts.
● OH-01: Rabbi Robert Barr, a political newcomer who was hoping to become the first rabbi in Congress, has dropped his bid to unseat GOP Rep. Steve Chabot this year. Barr's announcement comes after Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval's entry into the race last week, a development Barr specifically cited as influencing his decision.
In a statement, Barr spoke very positively about Pureval, saying he "has a proven track record of unseating a long-standing Republican incumbent, and he is committed to representing the voters of Southwest Ohio in a manner focused on many of our shared concerns." Barr also explained that his "decision to step out is to help ensure Steve Chabot is defeated," adding that he wanted to give Pureval "the time, energy and resources to focus on unseating Mr. Chabot, rather than planning for a primary." Donald Trump carried Ohio's 1st District 51-45, but as Barr noted, Pureval has beaten entrenched Republicans before.
● MI-13: The Democratic primary to succeed former Rep. John Conyers has gotten quite a bit more crowded this week, with two notable former state representatives entering the race. On Monday, Shanelle Jackson joined the Democratic primary, followed by Rashida Tlaib the following day. Tlaib would be the first Muslim-American woman to win a seat in Congress if she's successful. Meanwhile, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan just gave his endorsement to City Council President Brenda Jones, with whom he's worked closely during his tenure. The dark blue 13th District covers much of the city of Detroit as well as some of its suburbs.
● PA-07: Former federal prosecutor Ashley Lunkenheimer is the latest Democrat to join the race to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Pat Meehan in the 7th District. She doesn't appear to have run for office before, but Lunkenheimer says she has already raised $70,000 from individual donors since filing her paperwork on Friday. The Philadelphia Inquirer also describes Lunkenheimer's mother Molly Shepard as a "local power player" who is the CEO of an executive coaching firm and has served on several civic boards in Philadelphia, which could give Lunkenheimer some useful connections.
Lunkenheimer joins a crowded Democratic primary that includes state Sen. Daylin Leach, state Rep. Greg Vitali, bioengineer Molly Sheehan, former CIA officer Shelly Chauncey, and attorney Dan Muroff. However, the race could get scrambled considerably now that Pennsylvania has to redraw its congressional map after the GOP's gerrymander got struck down. There's a good chance that this incredibly gerrymandered swing district becomes a solidly blue seat centered around Delaware County, which could entice even more Democratic candidates to join the primary.
● PA-18: Nervous Republicans are pulling out all the stops in Pennsylvania's 18th District special election on behalf of GOP nominee Rick Saccone. Politico reports that the Republican National Committee is poised to devote $1 million to the contest to help mainly with digital ads and get-out-the-vote efforts. This comes on top of the NRCC and other national GOP groups having already spent $2 million on TV ads. The NRCC's latest spot desperately tries to tie Democrat Conor Lamb to Nancy Pelosi, castigating both of them for opposing the GOP's recent tax cut law. They tell viewers Saccone supports the tax law instead.
● TN-01: GOP Rep. Phil Roe, who only raised $3,700 last quarter and has been on retirement watch for a while, now tells Roll Call that he'll decide whether to seek a sixth term in the "next week or so." Remarkably, the fact that the 72-year-old Roe pledged not to serve more than 10 years in Congress when he successfully ran for office in 2008 hasn't come up at all amidst all the discussion about his potential departure.
● TX-02: Ted Cruz supports the Wall! Wealthy Republican activist Kathaleen Wall, that is, who faces several opponents in the GOP primary for this red open seat in the Houston area.
● TX-07: Activist Laura Moser, one of several Democrats competing in next month's primary in Texas' 7th Congressional District, just ran her first ad of the campaign during the final commercial break of the Super Bowl, spending $50,000 to do so. In the spot, Moser takes questions from a group of young schoolkids, though her answers seem a bit adult for them (she lists her priorities as "curbing climate change, and giving more people healthcare, and investing in this city so that our houses don't get washed away every year"). And in what might be one of the driest bits of humor ever used to discuss a campaign ad, the Houston Chronicle's Kevin Diaz describes the ad as "featuring Moser hosting a town hall event." You know, for kids!
● TX-16: Democrat Veronica Escobar just launched her first TV ad ahead of next month's fast-approaching primary, touting her efforts to fight corruption as El Paso County judge (a position akin to county executive, despite the name), then saying that "new threats from Donald Trump and Washington, DC" must be stopped. Interestingly, she also says she's been "standing up for our border," which perhaps is meant to sound deliberately vague. On her website, though, she defines her goals as expanding trade, supporting immigration reform, and protecting the environment. As for Trump's wall, she says on her site, "the talk of building taller walls does nothing to get to the root of a broken immigration system."
Escobar faces former El Paso city school board president Dori Fenenbock and former state Rep. Norma Chavez in the primary for this safely blue seat. Escobar far outraised Fenenbock in the fourth quarter, $276,000 to $65,000, though thanks in part to self-funding, Fenenbock had a small cash-on-hand lead, $451,000 to $402,000. Remarkably, Chavez didn't even file a fundraising report, saying she wasn't required to because she'd raised less than $5,000. Considering that Election Day is on March 6, it's hard to see how she has a serious shot, though the top two finishers will advance to a May runoff if no one clears 50 percent.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: On Tuesday, former GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg, who represented much of suburban Detroit in Congress for sixteen years, passed away at the age of 84 after a battle with Alzheimer's Disease.
Knollenberg's party-line conservatism largely served him well in his political career, until he ran into the serious twin headwinds of demographic change in suburban Oakland County and the plummeting popularity of President Bush during his second term. After defeating unheralded Democratic challenger Nancy Skinner by less than six percent in 2006, he finally lost his seat to Democrat (and future U.S. Senator) Gary Peters in the 2008 Democratic wave.
Longtime readers of Swing State Project—Daily Kos Elections' predecessor blog—may remember one particularly jarring episode from Knollenberg's final campaign for Congress: Knollenberg wrote a blog post on his official House website, titled "Protecting Our Families From Asian Invaders", which he later changed to "Protecting Our Families From Harmful Products". Knollenberg's nativism, of course, didn't help him in the least that fall—Peters ultimately prevailed by a 52-43 margin, with independent candidate Jack Kevorkian (yes, that, Jack Kevorkian) earning less than three percent.