On Tuesday, three pollsters have put out their latest results in Virginia's November gubernatorial race. First, Roanoke College says Democrat Ralph Northam beats Republican Ed Gillespie by 50-44, which is relatively similar to his 47-43 lead in their mid-September poll. Next, Christopher Newport University's release finds Northam up 48-44, which is a modest drop from his 49-42 edge in their early October survey. However, Monmouth gives Gillespie a 48-47 advantage, making them the very first pollster since the June primaries to find Gillespie leading at all. Monmouth's late September poll had Northam ahead 49-44, meaning they found the race swinging noticeably to the right.
In the aggregate, these three polls should make Northam feel better about his chances than Gillespie. However, these numbers demonstrate that this race is still far from over with three weeks left to go. While Northam has almost always led by modest marginssince the general election began, it wouldn't take anything more than a typical polling misfire for Gillespie to come out ahead.
Still, money is one thing that Northam won't be lacking for in the final three weeks. He crushed Gillespie in September fundraising, bringing in $7.2 million compared to just $4.4 million for the Republican. Furthermore, only $1 million of Northam's haul came from the DGA's PAC, while a full $2 million of Gillespie's total came from the RGA and its aligned PAC, meaning Northam’s army of small donors may be more likely to give again. Northam started October with a hefty $5.7 million on-hand, while Gillespie began the month with only $2.5 million in the bank. Republicans have been heavily running ads in recent weeks, but they likely won't be able to dominate the airwaves for the remainder of the race.