NV-Sen: Sound the alarms! Politico and other news outlets are reporting that unnamed insiders close to Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen relay that she plans to run for Senate next year against Republican incumbent Dean Heller. Rosen has yet to confirm it publicly, but will reportedly announce after the second quarter ends in late June.
Rosen only won her first term 47-46 last year against flawed GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian in the open 3rd District in Las Vegas’ southern suburbs, which flipped from 50-49 Obama to 48-47 Trump in 2016. However, her victory in that heavily contested race made Rosen one of just four non-incumbent Democrats to win a congressional race in Trump territory last year, meaning she has just the sort of strong campaign skills that Democrats will need against Heller in 2018.
Heller is the only Republican incumbent facing re-election in 2018 in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton after she won the Silver State 48-46, likely making it the single best chance for a Democratic pickup in a year where the rest of the map will largely force Team Blue to play defense. After being appointed to the Senate following disgraced GOP ex-Sen. John Ensign’s resignation in 2011, Heller only won a full term by a slim 46-45 plurality in 2012, which has left Democrats eagerly anticipating the opportunity for years to oust him in 2018.
It’s difficult to say just how endangered Heller is next year though, since publicly available polling has been nearly nonexistent. A recent PPP survey found Heller trailing a generic Democratic opponent 46-39, but of course “generic Democrat” is sort of a Rorschach test where voters can envision the perfect challenger, unlike any imperfect actual nominee. The more important result from that poll is likely Heller’s approval rating, which was underwater at just 44 percent compared to 50 percent disapproval. Heller’s likely support for passing Trumpcare when the GOP plans to hold a vote soon could give Democrats a major opening again him in 2018, especially since Heller has backed phasing out popular Medicaid expansion in his own state.
After a career in technology and leading her synagogue, Rosen would be running for higher office less than a year into her first term. Consequently, voters might not look too kindly upon a candidate seeking a promotion so soon into her first stint in public office. However, she would be far from the first House member to do so and win. Like Rosen would be attempting, Arkansas GOP Sen. Tom Cotton and Montana GOP Sen. Steve Daines both successfully captured Senate seats from the other party in 2014 despite having served just a single House term and not having held elected office before that. On the other hand, ex-Rep. Rick Berg lost in North Dakota as the 2012 Republican Senate nominee with just one House term under his belt.
Politico also reports that Rosen has the support of former Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid, who retired from office last year yet still wields immense influence in Nevada Democratic politics, while the Nevada Independent relays that she’s the first choice of the DSCC too. This unfolding support from key establishment Democrats could be persuading other potential Democratic Senate candidates to reconsider their plans. Ex-state Treasurer Kate Marshall had previously indicated she was thinking about it, but the Independent also reported Marshall now says she believes Rosen will be the party’s standard-bearer and sounds unlikely to run, although there’s no direct quote from Marshall herself yet.