NJ-Sen: On Thursday, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez's bribery trial ended with the judge declaring a mistrial after jurors failed to reach a unanimous verdict. It's unclear if the government will seek a new trial, though GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell called for the Senate Ethics Committee to investigate Menendez. Menendez has been under indictment since April of 2015 on charges of bribery, fraud, conspiracy, and making false statements. Prosecutors allege that Menendez used his office to benefit a friend of his, wealthy eye surgeon Salomon Melgen, who had provided Menendez with lavish gifts, including private air travel.
Menendez has maintained his innocence and made it clear for years that he plans to seek re-election next year. Menendez remained as feisty as ever after the trial ended, with him accusing the FBI and Department of Justice of being unable to "understand that the Latino kid from Union City and Hudson County can grow up to be a United States senator and be honest." New Jersey's powerful Democratic leaders have been supporting his campaign this whole time, and that hasn't changed. On Thursday, just after the mistrial was declared, Gov.-elect Phil Murphy made it clear that he'd support Menendez if he runs again.
For months, Democrats have been worried that Menendez would be found guilty and resign while Republican Gov. Chris Christie was still in office, which would allow Christie to appoint a Republican senator for the rest of Menendez's term. But Murphy will replace Christie in January, and it looks very unlikely that anything could compel Menendez to step down before then. However, if Menendez is the Democratic nominee next year, he could cause his party problems even without a conviction hanging over his head. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Menendez a negative 31-49 approval rating, while Suffolk gave him a bad 23-47 favorable rating last month.
New Jersey is a blue state, but Menendez may have just taken enough damage to put him in danger even in a good Democratic year. Even if Menendez runs and wins, Democrats won't be happy if they need to spend heavily in this expensive state to save him while other incumbents need help. However, it may be just too much to hope that Menendez loses renomination. New Jersey is a state where party leaders still have a great deal of influence in primaries, and as long as Democratic leaders stay with the senator, he won't be easy to beat. And it also won't be easy for an outsider to raise the vast sums of money needed to get their name out here. We'll see how things develop, but no matter what happens next, Menendez may be in for some turbulence next year at the ballot box.