As public polls show GOP mayoral candidate Nicole Malliotakis getting slaughtered by Democratic incumbent Bill de Blasio, her campaign is circulating of an internal survey claiming she’s got a shot at an upset.
A Marist/WNBC poll released Tuesday said the election is a potential 47-point blowout — with 65 percent of voters backing de Blasio, 18 percent supporting Malliotakis and 8 percent behind independent candidate Bo Dietl.
The large spread nearly matches de Blasio’s 49-point victory over Republican Joe Lhota in 2013.
But Malliotakis’ campaign pollster, Barry Zeplowitz & Associates, insisted in an internal memo distributed to Republican and Conservative Party leaders on Sept.14 that the race is much more competitive.
Malliotakis’s own poll of 600 voters taken in late August has de Blasio ahead with 44 percent to her 28 percent, with Dietl grabbing 3 percent, Reform Party candidate Sal Albanese 2 percent and 23 percent of voters undecided.
“We saw a significant jump in those who would vote for Malliotakis after the voter was educated about the Assemblywoman’s successes in Albany and reminded about de Blasio’s mishandling of important situations. There we see voters favoring Malliotakis over de Blasio by almost ten points,” Barry Zeplowitz said in the memo.
Political consultant Jerry Skurnik, who helped run former Mayor Ed Koch’s re-election bids, said campaigns typically keep a tight lid on internal polling — unless they’re way behind in public polls or way ahead and worry about supporters getting complacent and not coming out on Election Day..
“They’re afraid that their fundraising money will dry up because of the gap in the public polls. They have to push back against that,” Skurnik said of the Malliotakis campaign.
Malliotakis is trying to raise about $50,000 more to qualify for more than $1 million dollars in public matching funds. The Campaign Finance Board will likely determine whether she qualifies for public dollars at a Sept. 28 meeting.
Even the more positive internal campaign poll doesn’t mask the uphill challenge Malliotakis faces.
A majority of voters — 54 percent — said they didn’t know enough about Malliotakis to have an opinion.
A third of voters had a favorable view of her, and 13 percent had an unfavorable view of her.
The campaign poll was conducted before she launched her new TV campaign ads, Zeplowitz told party leaders.
Meanwhile, 54 percent of voters had a favorable view of de Blasio, compared to 34 percent who didn’t.
But the 2016 presidential campaign provided a cautionary tale about polls.
Most pre-election polls showed Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump.